Seniors' care problem simple - not enough beds

VICTORIA - There’s nothing complicated or mysterious about what happened to Al and Fanny Albo, the couple so cruelly separated days before her death.
There aren’t enough hospital beds and long-term care spaces to meet the need. That means people suffer.
It’s time for an independent look - across all five health authorities - at how bad the problems are, and what we can do to fix them.
It’s fine that the Interior Health Authority has finally acknowledged procedural problems, and promised changes.
But ultimately this is a capacity problem, one the government acknowledged before taking office. They have chosen not to fix it. Other priorities - tax cuts, spending, paying down the debt - came first.
Take Trail. Since 2001 about 120 long-term care beds have been closed, and 30 new ones opened. That’s a loss of 90 places for frail seniors in in a community with many old people whose children have moved away and a high rate of heart disease.
The Albos - in part because their story was so terrible - have captured political and public attention. But anyone who kept an eye on the Trail Times and papers across B.C. has read similar sad stories. (Which makes the IHA’s sudden discovery of the problems bizarre.)
At the same time home support in Trail has been cut. The Albos were promised adequate home care but didn’t get it, the likely reason they both ended up in the Kootenay Boundary Regional Hospital.
The hospital is also struggling. Health authority statistics for October show the hospital was at more than 100-per-cent capacity almost every day. At times it was trying to deal with 20-per-cent more patients than it was supposed to house.
No wonder hospital administrators are desperate to get seniors out, when patients are stacked in the halls waiting for those beds. The average wait for long-term care in the Interior is 88 days, up almost 50 per cent from a year ago. A senior in acute care is seen as a big problem.
Al Albo watched Health Minister George Abbott respond to his wife’s death only hours before he too died. His son Jerome said they appreciated Abbott’s apology, but were disappointed at much of what he said. "It seemed the government was trying to limit this to being a problem unique to Trail," he said. "It's a province-wide problem.”
He’s right. Back in 2002 the Liberals released their long-term care plan. The province was short 4,200 beds at that moment, the government said. By 2006, it would add 5,000 beds, in line with the 2001 campaign promise - about 1,000 a year.
Since then the population over 75 has increased by about 15 per cent. So today the province should have added about 6,500 beds to meet the need.
Instead, the government has added 607 beds in four years.
There are reasons. The government says the existing beds were in worse shape than they expected, and many had to be closed or fixed. But they knew that in 2002 when they announced a “plan” for 5,000 beds.
People in communities across B.C. pleaded with the government. Keep the old care homes open - even with their flaws - until replacements were ready. The government didn’t, just as it didn’t accelerate the building process once it fell behind.
The government says about 2,300 beds will open this year. But meeting the actual need is still years away.
Abbott has been resisting opposition calls for an independent look at the issue.
But it’s time. We need to know how serious the shortage is, where it’s worst and what we can do. Seniors deserve that.
So do taxpayers . The costs of coping - warehousing seniors in acute care beds, admitting people who might have still been at home with proper support - are likely greater than the costs of fixing the problem.
There’s no benefit in hiding from the problem. Let’s get the facts, and decide what we’e prepared to do to fix it.
Footnote: The Liberals should leap at a review. Families who were suffering in silence have seen the Albo case as a all to action. Abbott is going to spend this entire legislative session dealing with a string of sad cases raised by the opposition if he isn’t willing to announce a proper review.

Turin shows how easy it is to blow Olympic business opportunities

VICTORIA - So have you booked your holiday to Turin yet? Made plans to invest there, or buy a villa and start a new life?
Those are important questions for B.C. The 2010 Olympics are supposed to make people flock here, and companies open businesses.
So the Turin Games should have stirred some of the same interest from you.
After all, the justification for spending some $1.5 billion in taxpayers’ money to put on the 2010 Olympics is that there will be a lasting economic benefits. They should make people want to visit, or choose Vancouver as their next corporate office.
The Games themselves will likely be a wonderful experience for people in Vancouver and Whistler, and leave a legacy of sports facilities and Lower Mainland transportation improvements.
But they are ultimately money-losers.
Vancouver organizers point to indirect benefits - from increased tourism to investment - that they say will be worth $6 billion to $10 billion. A government study predicted that the Olympics could bring an increase of $2 billion to $3.3 billion in tourism revenues over seven years. That’s an average four-per-cent increase over current levels, large but consistent with Calgary’s experience.
Auditor General Wayne Strelioff looked at all those projections, and said they seemed reasonable. But he added a warning, quoting consultants who did the review.
"These benefits will not materialize automatically," they said. "They must be earned by a focused, adequately funded and skillfully executed marketing program."
The Turin Games reinforce that warning. Everything went well. But there was little evidence - at least from here - that Italy, or the region, was seizing on the marketing opportunity.
Economic Development Minister Colin Hansen agrees. “I don’t believe Italy is going to benefit as much as they could,” he says. One of the jobs of the Olympics Secretariat, part of his ministry, is to make sure B.C. gets the maximum long-term value from the Games.
But it’s not easy. The effort will take co-ordination, a clear strategy and money.
And time is already getting tight, given the size of the task.
Start with the most basic questions. What message does B.C. want to send, and who are the main target audiences?
The controversy over Vancouver’s share of the closing ceremonies in Turin shows how tricky this can be. The classic - or cliched - images of ice-fishing and snowmobiles sent a message. But they reinforced existing stereotypes, rather than reaching out to new markets.
Hansen says the government is looking at a brand statement for B.C. for the Games. The existing tourism brand - Super, Natural BC - remains a starting point. But Hansen says the province’s cosmopolitan, modern cities and the diverse population need to be part of the message.
Those are the values - along with the Pacific location - that can attract not just tourists, but European investors or Asian companies looking for a new North American branch office.
Crafting the message is only the first part of the challenge. The second is finding ways to get it out.
Some will be narrowly targeted. “The Olympic Games have become a bit of a meeting place for the world’s business community,” Hansen says, not just the sponsors but other companies who see a chance to reward customers or do business.
And B.C. learned in Turin, with its log house and Mounties, that thousands of journalists all looking for easy, interesting stories are a great opportunity.
There’s still a lot to be done, and not a lot of money to do it with. The government doubled Tourism BC’s budget in 2004, to $50 million, but isn’t planning any extra money to seize the opportunities the Games provide. The Olympics’ Secretariat has a relatively modest budget, and is focused on immediate issues.
Hansen says the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity won’t be missed. “In 2011, I don’t want to be saying to myself if only we had done ‘X,’” he says.
But Turin shows how easily the chance for long-term gains can be lost.
Footnote: The other major - and very difficult challenge - is ensuring the Games benefits flow beyond the Lower Mainland. The government can’t afford to blur its main message, but there needs to be a clear strategy to ensure communities from Terrace to Trail share in the benefits of Games that they are paying for. And a scoreboard, or new seats at a playing field, aren’t enough.

Tough talk on IHA brass softens overnight

What happened in the last 24 hours?

On Wednesday deputy health minister Penny Ballem released her review of the death of Fanny Albo, cruelly separated from her husband of 70 years without the chance for a proper goodbye and moved to a care home 105 kms away. She died two days later.

Ballem noted two senior Interior Health Authority medical leaders had failed to participate in the review, a fact she found "remarkable," and not in a good way. Health Minister George Abbott was there, and said he wasn't happy at their lack of participation.

But when NDP leader Carole James raised the problem in the legislature Thursday, Abbot downplayed the concern.

"Hon. G. Abbott: To be clear, the deputy — and I was there — referenced one or two officials who she would have liked to have spoken to, but she wasn't able to. One should not make more of that than what the deputy actually said. Again, the officials that I am meeting with later today worked very hard to ensure that the deputy had all of the information and all of the cooperation that was necessary in putting together a very constructive report."

Here's what the deputy actually said in her report:

”There is insufficient support and involvement of senior medical leaders from the Kootenay Boundary Health Service Delivery Area and corporate Interior Health in the area of quality of care and critical incident investigation.”

So why was Abbott ducking?

Albo's tragic case entirely predictable, and avoidable

VICTORIA - Almost seventy years they were married, Al and Fanny Albo.
But they died apart. Fanny was 91, and her heart was failing fast. Her sons knew she didn't have long to live. They wanted her to die with peace and dignity, and the couple to stay together for their last days.
Government policy and bad judgment by Interior Health Authority staff made that impossible.
There aren't enough acute care beds in hospitals, or long-term care beds in communities. If someone - like a dying old woman - is an acute care bed, she's blocking other patients.
So she gets moved, even if it's to a care home in a town 105 kms away over mountain roads, where she knows no one.
The government's "first available bed" policy says the priority is to clear the acute care bed. Someone who should be in long-term care has to take the first available bed, even if it's in a distant community, and wait for an opening closer to home.
Patents can pay for private care. But if they're counting on the government, they should be prepared to be moved.
In Fanny's case, that happened over the objection of her family and doctor. She was shuffled into an ambulance so quickly her husband had no time to hug her or kiss her goodbye.
And two days later she died.
Health Minister George Abbott dispatched his deputy to investigate, and this week she reported. It's a useful effort. But some of the biggest questions aren't answered, and the language is fuzzy.
Start with how both Albos ended up in hospital. Mrs. Albos was admitted in December because of her failing heart. But she rallied, and was sent home to be with her 96-year-old husband. They were supposed to get home care support to help him cope.
But it didn't happen. "The home support was insufficient in quality and time commitment," Ballem says. Within weeks her condition worsened, and Al suffered painful compression fractures of his vertebrae from trying to care for her.
They were both admitted to hospital. Ballem couldn't say why, but noted fewer home support services are available in Trail than in the rest of the province.
Why was Mrs. Albo moved? The main reason, Ballem says, is that no one took the time to think about what was best for her. They didn't consider a palliative care bed (though since Trail has only one, that's not surprising). They didn't question whether the first available bed policy made sense in this case.
The Interior Health Authority comes in for a slagging in the report. No one - nurses, family doctors, community - trusts the authority, or feels involved and consulted. (I'm offering a more direct paraphrase of the report.)
But the report doesn't really talk about the pressures. "There is a need for better alignment of home and community care and primary care resources with the health needs of the community," Ballem writes.
What that means, I think, is that it was mistake to close obsolete long-term care beds before replacements were ready. The Trail region has 90 fewer beds now than it did in 2001, according to local health care groups. They have been also been warning for three years about cuts to home care.
The Liberals promised 5,000 additional long-term care beds by 2006. In 2002, they said 4,200 beds were needed immediately to meet demand.
But the promise has been broken, and so far, they have added only 607 beds since 2001 - a record worse than the NDP's poor performance.
So health authorities juggle impossible demands. Leave someone in acute care while they wait for a local care placement, and they do badly and the bed is lost. Surgeries are cancelled, ER hallways fill up.
Push them into a distant long-term care home, and families are shattered.
Things may be worse in the Kootenays, but this is a problem across B.C.
Footnote: The government's apparent surprise at this case is could have been avoided by a subscription to the Trail Times. The newspaper has been reporting since 2002 on concerns about cuts to home care and long-term care, and the increasing risk to seniors and their families. Their dissatisfaction with the Interior Health Authority was also chronicled repeatedly.

Budget cuts, not child’s death, preoccupied ministry

VICTORIA - Read Jane Morley’s report on the death of Sherry Charlie, and you’ll be left scratching your head at the fumbling in the children and families’ ministry.
You’ll see that the government’s claim that budget cuts had not hurt the ministry’s ability to protect children is not true.
And you’ll have confirmation that the Liberals betrayed their 2001 campaign promise to stop “the endless bureaucratic restructuring” of the ministry.
Faced with an important task - learning from the death of a toddler - the ministry proved incapable of getting the job done, dragging the process out for more than two years.
Everyone knew it was taking too long. Periodically there would be brief bursts of activity, followed by long stretches where not much happened. About 18 months were lost to “periods of minimal productive work,” reported Morley, the province’s child and youth officer.
"But during the lapses, no one was monitoring and systematically asking the question - what is happening,” she reports.
Morley concludes there was no cover-up, or interference by politicians.
But the decisions politicians made - including the decision to cut the ministry budget - helped ensure the process dragged on. And the ministry fought to prevent scrutiny of its policies.
Sherry Charlie was beaten to death in September, 2002, weeks after being placed in the care of relatives under a new, poorly introduced ministry “Kith and Kin” policy. The placement decision was made by Usma, a First Nations agency operating under the ministry’s authority.
It was a bad decision. The father in the home - the man who killed her - had along and violent criminal history. The ministry had investigated other alleged problems. Systems to protect Sherry weren’t in place, or broke down.
The director’s review, an internal investigation, was supposed to look at the lessons that could be learned. (The Liberals had eliminated the Children’s Commission, which provided effective oversight when a child died. The Coroners’ Service is supposed to investigate child deaths, but has failed. An inquest into Sherry’s death was only held this month.)
The ministry’s internal review was plagued with problems. It hired Nicholas Simons to do the review. Simons, now a New Democrat MLA, was then executive director of child and family services for the Sechelt Nation then.
Simons hadn’t done a review like this before, and the ministry never clearly conveyed its expectations. The review went through 25 drafts and ended up pretty much as Simons submitted it in September, 2003, Morley reports.
But not entirely. Recommendations on ways the ministry could improve were gradually eased out of the report.
The ministry view was that the report should only look at whether people followed existing policy, not whether those policies were adequate to protect children. (Simons’ initial draft said that homes where children were to be placed under the new “Kith and Kin” agreements should be evaluated as thoroughly as any other placement; the ministry resisted including the recommendation.)
It’s an unreasonably narrow mandate, one more likely to find individual scapegoats than systemic problems. That’s especially worrying in the light of the lack of any other timely, effective review.
Through this long process the ministry had other priorities than learning from a child’s death. The government had launched a massive shift to regionalization, then pulled back. It had announced a 23-per-cent budget cut, then reduced that to 11 per cent. Coping with budget cuts consumed managers.
“The issue of how to manage the budget cuts took priority for senior managers, particularly starting in the summer of 2003,” Morley reports. “The regular monitoring information received by the executive was focused on this issue, not on such issues as whether the director’s cases were reviews were being completed.”
Managers failed. They let things slide, communicated badly and didn’t do their jobs. The people in charge didn’t get the review done.
But they failed in part because the government’s policies - including a damaging budget cut - left them unable to do the job.
Footnote: Minister Stan Hagen’s written response tried to shift the blame on to Simons. But he did not address the impact of budget cuts, or the management failures. Morley didn’t address the role of her office in not responding to the fact that the report was so long overdue.

Abbott needs to start giving real answers to health questions

VICTORIA - Health Minister George Abbott could land the government in trouble.
Abbott is seen as hard-working and knowledgeable.
But his standard response to questions in the legislature is a mix of partisan bluster and smart-alecky jokes. Actual answers are rare.
It didn't matter much in past cabinet posts, but it could be disastrous in health.
Even as the government hoped attention would be on the budget, the NDP raised legitimate questions about health care, and their effectiveness was boosted by Abbott's responses.
On budget day Question Period is usually irrelevant.
First up, NDP MLA Norm McDonald. The Interior Health Authority promised to keep Moberly Manor, a seniors home in Revelstoke, open until replacement beds were ready, McDonald said. Now they're closing it before there is anywhere in the community for people to go. Will the government keep its promise?.
Abbott's response was tiresome. The Interior Health Authority and the Liberal government has done a great job, he said, and anyway the NDP didn't invest in long-term care when it was in power. Not a word in response to the actual question.
McDonald appeared genuinely angry by the brushoff. He pointed out the obvious to Abbott: "If the people of Revelstoke were happy with Interior Health, (defeated Liberal) Wendy McMahon would be here, not me."
McDonald got a slightly clearer answer on the second attempt, but Abbott fell on the tired charge that the questions were somehow "fear-mongering." They weren't.
NDP MLA Chuck Puchmayr asked about the closing of 150 seniors'' beds in his riding. Abbot didn't answer, and suggested the question somehow insulted health care workers. It didn't.
And then North Coast MLA Gerry Coons asked about a Prince Rupert man who waited three days in a hospital hallway with a broken wrist and fractured jaw. When a chance for treatment became available in Prince George, his family drove him there - 1,800 kms - for treatment.
Abbott tried harder, but chided Coons for not asking for his help privately before raising the issue.
Except Coons had, and read from Abbott's letter in response that said it was the health authority's problem, not the government's.
The next day the first questions were about the terrible treatment of a Rossland couple, both in their '90s, wrenched apart by the Interior Health Authority days before the woman died. They were to celebrate their 70th anniversary in June. "After that long marriage she didn't even get a kiss or a hug goodbye," said NDP MLA Katrine Conroy.
Abbott apologized, and announced an investigation. But he couldn't resist partisan sniping as well, and a barely relevant reference to how bad things were under the NDP.
But the New Democrats weren't done.
Why is it, asked health critic David Cubberly, that the only non-government person going on a European health fact-finding tour with Gordon Campbell and Abbot is Les Vertesi - the premier's brother-in-law and, according to Cubberly, an advocate of two-tier care.
Fair question. The government only announced that Vertesi would be going along on the four-country tour the day before the premier was to leave. Why him, and not the head of one of the health authorities, or the legislature's health committee, or a New Democrat? (Vertesi is paying his own way.)
Abbott noted Vertesi is a respected ER doctor who has spoken widely on health care issues and is B.C.'s representative on the Canada Health Council. Then he blustered about the NDP being afraid of new ideas and wanting the tour to include Cuba. Blah, blah, blah, as the young people say.
Outside the legislature, Abbott could do little better. He hadn't read Vertesi's book, which Cubberly cited. But even without knowing anything, he was convinced the NDP was wrong. And he didn't know who invited Vertesi.
Health matters to people, and they don't expect partisan attacks and jokes to replace real answers. If Abbott doesn't do better, it will be a long session for the Liberals.
Footnote: Vertesi is not quite the two-tier advocate the NDP claimed. He argues competition is needed to produce health efficiencies, and that until that is built into the public system private two-tier care should be allowed. He's an interesting and thoughtful analysts. But he is also a mysterious choice as the tour's sole expert advisor.

Sherry's legacy shows up in boost for children's ministry budget

VICTORIA - Call it the Sherry Charlie budget.
Sherry Charlie was beaten to death days after being placed in care under a new ministry policy. The failures in her case - by the ministry, and the First Nations agency responsible for her protection - forced the government to admit the facts.
And the response was evident in the budget.
For years the government has maintained that everything was fine in the ministry of children and families. Even earlier this month a senior ministry official briefing reporters was maintaining that the ministry had enough people, and enough front-line social workers, to do the job.
Now the government has acknowledged the obvious. Things were not fine. The ministry was starved of funds and short of staff. And children and families suffered as a result.
The budget confirms that. The ministry will get a 12-per-cent increase, another $200 million. A large chunk of the money will be set aside to respond to recommendations for change expected in Ted Hughes' report on the ministry. About 180 new staff will be hired.
It's a welcome step, but perhaps still not enough. Even with the increase, the ministry will have less money in real dollars this year than it did in 2001.
Overall, the 50-odd journalists (insert your joke here) in the budget lockup complained this was a boring document.
That's not a bad thing. It reflects the fact that for the most part the government is executing its three-year plan. There is no merit in budgets that constantly lurch off in new directions. This one appeared to balance spending and modest targeted tax cuts.
Health gets a 3.9-per-cent increase, enough to fund improvements, and education spending will rise 2.4 per cent.
Both those are on top of wage increases, which will be covered from a separate fund. That means there should be enough money to hire additional staff to deal with issues like class size and composition.
The wage issues remains a problem. Finance Minister Carole Taylor has set aside $420 million for increases this year, enough for an average 2.7-per-cent increase.
But contracts with some 300,000 government employees are expiring in the next few months. Many - teachers, doctors, health sector workers - are looking for much larger settlements. Their demands will test the government's commitment, especially given increasing public dissatisfaction with the Liberals quickness to substitute legislation and imposed contracts for negotiation.
There are other areas of concern. Despite a growing economy and population, Taylor is forecasting that government revenue will fall next year.
The finance types point to sound reasons, and risks like falling natural gas prices. And it is better to err on the side of caution.
But only up to a point. The government's budget for this year under-estimated actual revenue by $2.7 billion. That money that could have funded a tax cut, or increased services; now it will mostly go to debt repayment without a real public debate on the options.
What was missing from the budget?
An increase in welfare rates for starters, and a recognition that those left on the welfare rolls at this point will be hard to move into the workforce. It is time to reduce the desperation in their lives.
There was also little in this budget clearly earmarked for B.C.'s regions.
Even the pine beetle crisis continues to get insufficient attention. The province's funding is increased to $46 million, but the emphasis remains on harvesting the damaged wood and replanting. Little money is going to help communities prepare for decades of reduced timber supply one the beetle wood is harvested.
The Heartland, flavour of the month a few years ago, is now a forgotten concept.
Overall, give the budget a B.
A few tax cuts, split between business and individuals fairly even. Spending increases that will address some of the biggest problem areas.
And - thankfully - a recognition that the government's decisions had played a part in the death of a little girl.
Footnote: The budget forecasts that the province's debt will increase by $5 billion over the next three years. Taylor says the infrastructure spending is needed, and the debt is still manageable. Given the low revenue forecasts, larger surpluses will also likely reduce the real debt increase.

Campbell just can’t admit Children’s Commission error

VICTORIA - Why is it so hard for the government to accept the obvious - that it made a serious, damaging mistake in eliminating the Children’s Commission in 2002?
The inquest into the death of toddler Sherry Charlie has wrapped up, a two-week review that outlined a string of failures.
No one - not the government, the RCMP or the First Nations agency involved - emerged from the inquest with reputation intact.
All made serious errors, either in placing Sherry in the home where she was beaten to death or investigating her death.
Human error, systemic problems, shabby investigations, botched communications, sloppiness - it was a dismal, depressing two weeks.
Sherry, only 19 months old when she was battered to death, never really had much of a chance. The agencies and people that were supposed to support her and keep her safe failed. Their failures weren’t the result of bad luck, or a rare confluence of events. The system didn’t work.
Sherry was placed in the care of relatives, even though the father in the home had a long criminal record, including convictions for spousal assault. Even though the children and families’ ministry had investigated previous reports about the safety of other children in the home.
And even after Sherry’s death and an autopsy that found evidence of repeated abuse, her brother was left in the home for five months.
The jury’s 19 recommendations make a start at addressing the problems.
Sherry’s life was in the hands of Usma, a First Nations’ agency that operated under delegated authority from the ministry of children and families. That’s a sound approach, ensuring workers are more knowledgeable about local issues and more trusted. But the jury urged that social workers at those kind of agencies should not have lower levels of training than ministry staff.
Sherry’s placement was one of the first under a new ministry ”Kith and Kin” policy, which stressed the value of finding a family member to care for a child as an alternative to foster care.
Again, a positive policy. But it was introduced in haste, with inadequate training. Proper criminal record checks weren’t required. (That problem wasn’t fixed until the last few weeks.) Rules around home and reference reviews were inadequate. The ministry guidelines were incomplete.
Fix it, the jury said.
The jury made 19 recommendations in all, to police, coroner, the health care system, the ministry and Usma.
The last recommendation was sent specifically to Premier Gordon Campbell. Bring back the Children’s Commission, eliminated by the Liberals in September 2002 - the month Sherry was kicked and beaten to death.
The commission would not have kept Sherry alive and safe.
But it would have examiner her death. It would have reviewed the Kith and Kin policy when it was introduced, and warned of problems. The public would have known some one was watching. Just as the public would have known that 713 child death files were abandoned incomplete in a warehouse.
And all those things would have happened automatically.
Premier Gordon Campbell rejected the jury’s calls for an immediate restoration of the commission. He wants to wait, he said, until other reviews of the ministry by Child and Officer Jane Morley and Ted Hughes are complete before making a decision. The final report from Morley is due at the end of June.
Campbell could plead for time to determine the best way to restore what was lost when the commission was eliminated, and a chance to incorporate Hughes’ recommendations.
But almost everyone involved in child protection and supporting families has called for the restoration of effective independent oversight.
Campbell could easily have acknowledged the error in eliminating the commission, and promised to accept the spirit of the jury’s recommendations. The details could await the various reports still to come.
Getting rid of the Children’s Commission was a mistake. It weakened protection for children, and removed an important independent voice that celebrated ministry successes, and warned of problems.
It’s time to face the facts, and fix the problem.
Footnote: The NDP pretty much called for minister Stan Hagen’s resignation this week. That’s the last thing the ministry needs after a decade of instability. But Hagen has to begin dealing publicly with the wide concerns about the issues facing the ministry, something he has been unwilling to do.

Denials, confusion continue as children and families back in news

VICTORIA - There is something weirdly self-destructive about the Liberals' handling of the children and families' ministry.
The legislature has been back for three days, and already the government is looking evasive and disorganized. And its wounds are mostly self-inflicted.
The latest controversy is over ministry management changes, why they were made and how they affect its ability to deliver services. Deputy minister Alison MacPhail - the equivalent to the CEO - was shuffled out first, moved into a newly created post in another ministry. Days later director of child protection Jeremy Berland was moved. The government agreed to keep him as an assistant deputy minister and pay him $115,000 a year while he does research at the University of Victoria.
The timing raises obvious and legitimate questions. The inquest into the death of Sherry Charlie, the toddler beaten to death weeks after being placed in care under a new ministry policy, is just being completed. Child and Youth Officer Jane Morley has handed in her report on the ministry's internal review into Sherry's death. And in April Ted Hughes will present his much more sweeping report into the ministry's performance and the effect of eliminating the Children's Commission and the Child and Family Advocate.
And the ministry still has clear problems. Its own internal statistics show that only one in five reports of child abuse or neglect is being completed within the 30-day standard set by the ministry. Thousands are still open more than three months after they were filed. Major questions remain about salvaging a botched regionalization effort that was at the centre of Liberal plans.
So why add instability by removing top managers at such a critical time?
The question is reasonable. And I'd expect it could be readily answered by a candid government. The people in the jobs may be burned out, and need a change. Their new positions recognize their contributions and effort, and will still prove value, the government could say.
Or it could laud their past work, but say the premier's office, or Children and Families Minister Stan Hagen, felt it was time for new managers with different skills. And again, the soft landings could be justified.
Instead, there's been dodging and evasions.
Who, for example, decided that it was a good idea for child protection director Jeremy Berland to move to the UVic research job?
The government isn't saying. Hagen says he had no idea the idea was being discussed until the deal was done, and doesn't think he should have known. It was a personnel matter, and it would be political interference if he had any role, Hagen said.
The Liberal spin types deny that the premier's office was involved, though they won't say who was. (The acting deputy minister signed of on the deal, but he had been in the job only days.)
Two former deputy ministers with long experience think both claims ludicrous. The premier's office is involved in all such decisions, they say. And ministers have every right to know about and block such moves if they fear problems will be created in the ministry. If Hagen really returned from holidays to learn two of his most critical managers had been moved in his absence something has gone seriously wrong with the system, they say.
The result of all this is more confusion and uncertainty - exactly what the ministry does not need.
And it follows a terrible tradition of denial.
As the ministry's regionalization plan fell years behind schedule, the government kept claiming everything was fine. As questions mounted about Sherry Charlie's death, it refused to acknowledge problems or the need for an independent review until political pressure was overwhelming. When critics complained the Coroner's Service wasn't reviewing child deaths properly, the government denied any problems - until 713 abandoned child death files were found abandoned in a warehouse.
By now they should have learned that some clear answers, and willingness to acknowledge mistakes, would be a start to restoring public confidence.
Footnote: Morley has delivered her report on the ministry's handling of its review into Sherry Charlie's death to Attorney General Wally Oppal. Its public release is being delayed while the ministry cuts any information that violates the province's privacy rules. If Morley reported to the legislature, not the attorney general, her office would make those cuts independently.

Health care Throne Speech shows Liberals' agenda skimpy

VICTORIA - That was an odd Throne Speech from the Liberals.
It's bold to make a look at the basic principles of health care the centrepiece, including a plan to "update" the Canada Health Act.
Gordon Campbell is right in arguing that it's time to decide what the act really means, especially when it promises things like "reasonable access" to medically necessary procedures.
The Quebec Supreme Court has already ruled that the words have to mean something. The court supported a man who argued that he had the right to seek private care - paid for by the government - because he had waited unreasonably long for surgery.
Unless politicians begin to come clean on what the act really means, the courts will take on the task of providing definitions.
But there are obvious problems with the initiative.
For starters, the Canada Health Act is federal law. B.C., like other provinces can have a debate, but Ottawa decides whether to listen, and balances the concerns of all the provinces.
This is also a fuzzy exercise to make the centre of the Throne Speech. Campbell isn't promising fast action on the issues, only some provincial version of the Canada Health Act by 2009. It's hardly a galvanizing agenda item in the near term.
And it's a potentially big political problem, depending on where this review takes the government.
Campbell says that B.C.'s legislation will ultimately set out the province's position on the Canada Health Act's five key promises. The act isn't complex. It says provinces must have a publicly administered health care system that provides needed medical care in a reasonably timely way, fair payment to doctors and equal access for all Canadians. No user fees on top of government payment, or special charges for speedier, better care.
Defining those terms is challenging.
But Campbell proposes to add a fifth principle - sustainability.
And that may be the most challenging of all. Campbell argues that an aging population and rising costs of care mean we just can't keep on doing what we're doing now. "We all know that it's not sustainable," he says.
That's not really true. Cost increases are worrying, but Canadian health care spending as a percentage of GDP was unchanged between 1991 and 2001. A federal finance department review in 2004 that even without changes health spending would remain easily manageable until 2040 and beyond.
But if you do accept Campbell's premise, then the government is looking at some very rough decisions.
This isn't - or shouldn't be - about whether care is delivered by a public hospital or a private clinic. If the health care plan pays the bills, and there is no preferential treatment, then the principles of the Canada Health Act aren't compromised. The public-private debate can be settled on the basis of cost and effectiveness.
The notion that health care spending is not sustainable, and must be capped, carries big implications. Letting people pay directly for special care doesn't decrease health care spending, it increases it.
Capping spending in the name of sustainability can involve finding ways of reducing demand, such as keeping people healthy longer, and cutting costs.
But it also means saying some treatments will simply no longer be done, ebcause we don't want to spend the money. Period. And that is a tough sell.
Once you're past the health care discussion, the Throne Speech was pretty thin - a nod to children and families' ministry problems, more money for the Coroners' Service, some smallish education items and the Spirit Bearfor provincial animal.
The speech highlights a problem for the Liberals. Their first-term agenda was based on reducing government and cutting costs, reflecting a suspicion about government services.
.Now that work is done, it's tougher to come up with an agenda for the second term.
But without a government agenda, the opposition take control.
It's a big problem for the Liberals, and the Throne Speech suggest they have yet to solve it.
Footnote: Short shrift for the regions in this Throne Speech, and no mention of the late unlamented "Heartlands Strategy." Not one word on the softwood dispute. Also mostly silence on the New Relationship with First Nations, which was the dominant theme in last fall's Throne Speech. The challenges of turning the good intentions into specific agreements have proved tough.

Olympic overruns a warning we need more control

VICTORIA - I used to be a manager, and probably that shapes my response to the Vancouver Olympic financial problems.
If someone who worked for me came back soon after a project started, confessed they had got the numbers wrong and asked for a lot more money, I might come up with the cash. But I would be unhappy, and trust them less.
That's roughly where the Vancouver Olympic Organizing Committee is today.
VANOC, as it is called, has been warning vaguely about cost overruns for a couple of months. Now management says the cost of building the Olympic venues and housing was going to be way more than they had told the public. The $470-million budget was going to be overspent by $110 million.
The explanations get a little vague. The IOC demanded the Olympic bid be prepared based on 2002 costs, the organizing committee said. Now, four years later, things cost more, especially because construction costs in the province have been rising sharply.
But IOC requirements don't explain why VANOC didn't provide more accurate numbers to government when it asked for financial commitments. If it had, the committee wouldn't be looking for more money now.
And it doesn't explan why the public wasn't told about the real construction costs.
There's no need to panic. The venue overrun is 23 per cent, bad but still manageable. If the operating costs - about $1.5 billion - can be controlled, and revenues reach the target levels, then there will be no nasty shocks. (The idea that a two-week sports event can cost $1.5 billion to run is in itself alarming.)
But there is every reason to be watchful. The Games organizers have already broken trust. They said they would need $470 million from you to build the venues. Now they want much more.
VANOC says you're not to worry. "We are determined never to go back to the taxpayers," says CEO John Furlong.
Except they already promised no more money would be needed, when they asked for support for the Olympic bid. Once you have broken trust, you better expect to be watched much more closely.
Provincial taxpayers are on the hook for any Olympic overruns or losses.
We are the owners, the guarantors, but are kept mostly in the dark. VANOC's published financial statements provide no useful information to allow assessment of progress, costs or coming problems. Shareholders in a tiny business get better information. (That may improve next month, when provincial Auditor General Wayne Strelioff provides an independent update.)
It's our show. We put up a big chunk of the money - about $1.3 billion if you count the Sea-to-Sky Highway project. We've taken all the risk. But we're ignored. If any company treated shareholders like VANOC treats us, the directors would be dumped.
The province has three directors on the 20-person VANOC board, including close Campbell advisor Ken Dobell and Rusty Goepel and Richard Turner, both at the top of the business heap and finance experts. (Whistler gets two board seats.)
None of the province's directors are accountable to you. If Olympics minister Colin Hansen is too busy to sit on VANOC, why not a Liberal MLA to bring accountability?
It's not simply a question of looking out for your money. The economic justification for the Olympics is the spinoff benefits - the tourism, and investment that follow. But as former auditor general George Morfitt noted, that will only happen with planning and investment. A keen MLA on the VANOC board could help ensure all opportunities were seized, and that benefits came to to the entire Lower Mainland and the rest of the province.
This is the critical time for the Olympics. Decisions made now will be irrevocable.
And while VANOC neds to get on with the job, it shouldn't shy from greater openness and accountability. Especially when it comes to the people who wll pay the bills.
Footnote: Turin's Olympic committee went back to government last month for another $110 million, pushing the operating costs to $1.6 billion - more than VANOC has budgeted for Games still four years away. The late request is a reminder that governments are captives of the Olympic committee as the Games near. Saying no - and risking a global embarrassment - is not an option.

BCGEU strike vote should push both sides to look for deal

VICTORIA - Things have just got a lot more intense in public sector contract talks.
The BCGEU's George Heyman walked into a press conference here Friday and set the stage for a quick settlement by March 31, or a long tough battle.
Heyman said his union is taking a strike vote. It's a dead clever move.
Up until now the government had taken the initiative on the timing of talks. Finance Minister Carole Taylor said $1 billion in special funding was available for unions that sign agreements by March 31, when almost all the current contracts expire. That's about $3,300 per employee, a healthy incentive.
But the money is from the surplus in this fiscal year, Taylor said, and it will vanish at midnight March 31.
It's a good tactic. The money is on top of a $4.7-billion provision for compensation increases over four years. That's enough to allow an average increase of 2.7 per cent. The $1 billion gives unions a chance to get ahead of inflation and catch up after the wage freeze.
And the deadline means unions feel more pressure to settle than the government negotiators, and thus should be more willing to compromise.
Now the BCGEU will have a strike mandate from its members. The union can't strike while the current contract is in place. But members will be able to walk out at midnight March 31 when the agreement expires. And they would be fueled by anger that the $1 billion was taken off the table.
Now government negotiators will also feel pressure to compromise in order to get a deal.
What are the chances?
It's impossible to assess negotiations if you aren't at the table. Heyman says government negotiators are refusing to consider proposals to limit contracting our and privatization. The union's members have seen 7,000 jobs lost over the last five years. Now they want some guarantees around security.
Employers hate those kinds of guarantees. In a few years someone may figure out a way to save millions of dollars, and improve service, by contracting out a government function. Employers want some freedom to claim those benefits.
But there is usually a middle ground, provisions that offer some security for employees and some freedom for management.
The government should be pushing hard for a deal with the BCGEU. The union has been pragmatic since the Liberals were elected. It accepted the two-year wage freeze and the job losses, negotiating protection for some workers in exchange. And it has made an effort to co-operate with Taylor's agenda.
And there's a chance to reach a reasonable wage deal that could be the pattern for other settlements. Heyman is talking about an increase matching Alberta's recent settlement - about 3.3 per cent a year - plus catch-up on the four per cent lost to inflation during the wage freeze.
That's more than the government has planned. But if the $1 billion is factored in, it's not much more. The parties are close enough that an agreement could likely be found after the usual threats and warnings of disaster.
The government should be pushing hard for a deal after last fall's teachers' strike. That was a turning point. The public had mostly accepted the government's early rough treatment of public sector workers as necessary, and a response to excessive settlements under the NDP.
But the BC Teachers' Federation kept solid public support even after the strike was declared illegal. The government was trounced in the public opinion war. The BCGEU is determined to make that happen again.
The first agreement is going to be the toughest. No union wants to risk getting less than those that follow, and some have much greater demands - including making up the 15-per-cent wage cuts imposed in some sectors.
Getting a deal with the BCGEU would be a huge advantage in talks with everyone from doctors to teachers.
Both sides now have a reason to bend before the March 31 deadline.
Footnote: Heyman said the union has been told the government plans to use a cabinet order to remove 700 employees from the bargaining unit, including those working for the Film Commission and the Oil and Gas Commission. The current contract would initially apply, but the employer would subsequently seek a new deal.

Children's ministry due for big changes

Here's a news story I did today. Quite an extraordinary development. It is hard to see the benefit of leaving the ministry without a deputy minister through a very challenging time.
And it is hard to accept the repeated claims that all is well when the premier's office reaches to South Africa for help.
Du Toit comes with a great reputation. It's a good bet that her stay will be much longer than three months.
It's also a good bet that the children and families ministry will get much more money in this month's budget.



B.C.'s embattled children and families' ministry has replaced its
top bureaucrat and turned to a South African child care expert for help.
The ministry has struggled with a string of problems, including a massive
restructuring that is years behind schedule and a controversy over its handling
of child deaths, including the high profile case of Sherry Charlie.
Jessica McDonald, deputy minister to the premier, said the decision to move
Alison MacPhail from the ministry's top job was unrelated to the controversies.
MacPhail, who is moving to a new position in the attorney general's ministry,
was interested in a change sometime in the next year, McDonald said. "I think
we have made the best decision in making the change now," she said.
The departure leaves the ministry without a deputy minister as it prepares to
deal with a string of potentially damaging reports, including reviews by Child
and Youth Officer Jane Morley and Ted Hughes. Associate deputy minister Arn van
Iersel will be acting deputy.
McDonald said she wanted to see the results of Hughes' review of the ministry's
operations before hiring a new deputy minister. "I'm not going to prejudge the
information that will come in from Mr. Hughes," she said.
Hughes first report is due Feb. 28.
McDonald said the premier's office has hired Lesley du Toit of South Africa on
a three-month contract to advise on child and youth services.
Du Toit will focus on the ministry's attempt to move to new regional
authorities, including five new aboriginal authorities.
She will also help the government respond to the Hughes inquiry recommendations
when they are released.
Du Toit is executive director of the Child and Youth Care Agency for
Development in Pretoria. She's best known for being tapped in 1995 by Nelson
Mandela to help develop child care and protection systems in South Africa.
"She has an outstanding international reputation," McDonald said.
Du Toit has also been working since 2002 on a number of initiatives in B.C.,
including a government-funded international advisory panel for the children and
families' ministry.
The three-month contract will see her paid $60,000, to include salary and
expenses.
McDonald said the contract could be extended.
Suzanne Williams of the Institute for Child and Rights Development said Du
Toit, who has worked with the institute on several projects, is a great choice.
"Anyone would be very lucky to have Lesley," she said.

Great Bear deal shows B.C. adapting to a new world

VICTORIA - Nine years ago it was called the Midcoast Timber Supply area, and the government's interest was in seeing it logged.
Environmental groups were a nuisance, or in the words of then premier Glen Clark, "enemies of British Columbia."
And First Nations were pretty much irrelevant to any land use discussion.
Flash forward to this week for a reminder of just how extraordinarily things have changed.
For starters, it's now the Great Bear Rainforest, the clever name coined by the environmental groups back in 1996 when they wanted to win support for protecting the area.
And when Premier Gordon Campbell proudly announced a new land use deal for the region he shared the platform - and lots of praise - with First Nations and the same environmentalists who had been so maligned.
The new reality has arrived. First Nations have established a legal right to a say in decisions that affect land they are claiming as traditional territories.
Environmental groups have built political clout within the province, and shown a consistent ability to marshal international support to put economic pressure on industry and government.
After a bumpy start - especially with First Nations - the Liberal government has accepted the new reality, and showed with this announcement an ability to make the most of it.
On the day Campbell announced the new plan, it got big favourable news coverage across North America and around the world. The New York Times, Los Angeles Times International Herald Tribune and hundreds of others ran stories. Britain's Channel 4, in a typical coverage, ran film of beautiful scenery and playful bears and hailed "a major blow for preserving the planet's wildlife."
In terms of tourism promotion, figure a multimillion-dollar PR coup. The government's communication shop - with big help from the environmental groups, who have excellent press contacts - made the most of the opportunity.
The local impact of the land use plan is tougher to sort out.
The plan completes a process begun under the NDP. It covers a huge stretch of the coast, from just north of Powell River to Alaska. About one-third of the land will be protected from development. The rest will be open to commercial activities, including logging, but under a new Ecosystem Based Management regimen. Committees will review plans for each area, balancing environmental protection and the economic benefits and losses from any planned activities.
The forest industry was represented in the land use talks, and at the announcement. For the companies, any move towards certainty is valuable after all this time.
There are costs to his kind of agreement.
For starters, B.C. has put up $30 million for a new First Nations' economic development fund, and hopes the Harper government will match it. Environmental groups have raised another $60 million, mostly from U.S. foundations, for a First Nations fund to help with environmental issues.
All in, it will be $120 million. A lot of money, but less if it's considered a payment for allowing resources to be removed from lands claimed by First Nations while the treaty process continues.
The increased protection areas will also cost money. The annual allowable cut for the region had been estimated at four million cubic metres. The new land use plan will see that fall to about 3.1 million, a potential loss of jobs and government revenue.
There are benefits too. Certainty means more investment on a range of fronts.
And the reality is that there was no alternative. Everyone involved recognized a compromises would have to be reached or nothing would happen, and government brokered the deal.
It's not likely a model that will be repeated across the province. Most land use issues are less complex and polarized.
But on the big issues, things like coalbed methane, offshore gas and fish farms, expect some similar resolution of the inevitable conflicts.
The world has changed. B.C. has no choice but to acknowledge the new reality, and make the best of it.
Footnote: The government's announcement didn't make any mention of the $120-million fund for First Nations, or the province's contribution. Lands Minister Pat Bell said the government didn't want to highlight the fund until the new federal government had a chance to consider the $30-million request. Expect new Liberal David Emerson to deliver a fairly quick yes.

Emerson, Harper deal democracy another blow

VICTORIA - Pragmatically, David Emerson's jump into Stephen Harper's cabinet is probably good news for B.C.
But it still stinks.
This is a politician who only three weeks ago was telling voters in his riding that he believed deeply in the Liberal Party, and that they should believe in him.
They did. He was elected with 43 per cent of the vote. And now he's betrayed them.
Emerson didn't just campaign as a strong Liberal. He warned that a Stephen Harper government would plunge Canada into a "black hole."
The Conservative party was made up of "angry" and "heartless" individuals who would destroy Canada's social programs and don't like immigrants, Emerson said. "They're uncomfortable with ethnic minorities," he said. "They try to dance around it and create partisan attempts to win those votes, but I think everybody sees through that."
The Conservatives were even too dim to understand the importance of the Pacific Gateway transportation project, he said.
On election night Emerson was passionate about the need to battle the Conservatives. "I'm going to be Stephen Harper's worst enemy," he vowed.
But all it took was a phone call from a Conservative agent, the offer of a top cabinet job and Emerson jumped into bed with the angry, heartless Harper. So much for keeping promises, or principles.
After almost two years of saying there were clear and important differences between the parties, Emerson now says that wasn't true. He was misleading anyone who listened.
Especially the people in Vancouver Kingsway. Two weeks ago they elected Emerson as a Liberal to represent them in Ottawa. New Democrat Ian Waddell came second, with the Conservative candidate a distant third.
Despite their overwhelming rejection of the Conservatives, the voters in that riding are being represented by one.
There is nothing wrong with people changing parties on matters of principle. If an MP is deeply disturbed by the direction his party has been heading, he has the freedom to cross the floor, or more honourably to sit as an independent.
But that's not what happened here. Faced with the gloomy prospects of life on the opposition benches after two years in cabinet, Emerson jumped to keep a cabinet job.
Emerson says he can do more for his constituents if he's on the winning side. "If I'm going to dedicate another two years to public service, how can I have the most impact," he asks. "I think I can be more effective in helping them in cabinet than in opposition."
Practically, this is probably good news for B.C. Emerson is in a position to get action on B.C.'s priorities, from the Pacific Gateway project to pine beetle aid, an as international trade minister takes on the softwood file. He's also responsible for the Olympics, so expect a quick yes to the organizers' request for an extra $55 million to cover early cost over-runs.
But it's very bad news for democracy. Emerson and Harper have subverted the electoral process for their personal goals. The voters - the people who are supposed to be at the centre of all this - have been treated with contempt.
It's also a bad stumble for Harper on his first day. Instead of setting a new tone and new direction, he's looking much like the Liberals, welcoming Emerson just as eagerly as Paul Martin embraced Belinda Stronach when she abandoned the Conservatives.
At the same time Harper named Conservative campaign co-chair Michel Fortier to cabinet, even though Fortier didn't run in the election. He'll be appointed to the Senate, Harper said, and then run in the next election.
A Senate appointment and a seat at the cabinet table for a key party organizer, even though voters had been given no chance to judge his abilities.
And a big prize for an MP ready to denounce the principles he championed only weeks ago, and abandon both his party and the voters of his riding.
It was a dubious start for a government that had promised to do things differently.
Footnote: B.C. got three other seats at the cabinet table. Stockwell Day gets public safety, Chuck Strahl agriculture and Gary Lunn is the new minister for natural resources. The 27-member cabinet is down 12 people from Martin's version; B.C. should have the representation to advance the province's interests.

Knee, hip plan a step forward for health care

VICTORIA - There’s much to praise in the government’s plans to reduce the wait for knee and hip surgery.
The problem has been terrible. Every time I write about the issue, I hear from people with stories of suffering, economic hardship and physical deterioration as they wait for surgery that keeps getting pushed farther and farther away.
Now the government has announced a plan that should make a significant long-term difference.
And at the same time it offers a model that can be used to deal with other, similar problems.
The plan has five elements.
At the centre is a new Centre for Surgical Innovation at UBC, with two operating rooms dedicated to knee and hip work. The centre will be able to do about 1,600 operations a year. That alone should take care of the wait problem for the next few years.
The problem, on one level, is simple. Wait lists grow because the government won’t pay for treatment for people who need it. The health care system has received enough funding to allow about 7,000 knee and hip procedures a year. About 7,300 people require the operation each year, so wait times grow. The extra capacity at the new centre should reverse the trend.
That’s not the only advantage. The new centre is a kind of ‘Hips and Knees R Us.’ That’s all the centre will do, so it will become very good at prepping people, operating on them and sending them on their way with a good rehab plan. As it learns better ways of sticking in a new hip and helping people recover, it will pass them on to hospitals around the province.
It makes imminent sense. Mr. Muffler finds efficiency in doing one thing; so can hospitals.
The government has also come up with $5.5 million more for the Research Centre for Hip Health at Vancouver General Hospital, the first institute in the world that’s looking at ways of avoiding hip problems and improving outcomes.
And another $5 million will be spent to set up a proper waiting list, or ‘provincial surgical patient registry.’
It’s discouraging that only now is government starting to try get a handle on the basic task of managing the wait for treatment. Only by 2007 will patients be ranked by urgency, and given some idea of how long they can expect to wait. Only then will the health authorities have basic wait list data. It’s a confession of mismanagement, but at least the problem is being addressed.
Finally, there’s $25 million to be split among the health authorities to fund extra operations in an effort to cut into waiting lists.
Again, one could argue - I certainly would - that the province could and should have provided that funding years earlier. Fixing knees and hips, relieving peoples’ suffering, getting them back into life seem both a good investment and a moral imperative. But at least it is now happening.
The other encouraging element is the way this whole initiative was developed.
The idea of a knee and hip centre was tested at Richmond Hospital by the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority. By running two operating rooms and other measures, the pilot project was able to double the number of operations surgical teams could do in a day, from three to six. It knocked a day off the average four to five-day hospital stay, and cut waiting lists. (The UBC centre is now supposed to take those lessons across the province.)
The chance to learn from small, regional experiments - on wait times, and addictions and employment training - is too rarely seized.
It’s amazing how unmanaged our health care system really is. Despite an extraordinary number of bright people looking at the issues there is almost no useful data for making decisions and setting priorities.
The knee and hip project is a step towards smarter, better managed, more effective public health care.
Footnote: Give some credit to the departing Paul Martin for this effort. The First Ministers' agreement to address wait times in five critical areas in return for more money helped drive this initiative. B.C. does well in cardiac, cancer and cataract care, but was spurred to deal with orthopedic wait problem by agreement.

Ready report delay ramps up risk of fall school strike

VICTORIA - Some sort of teachers' strike this fall has just become more likely.
Sorry to be negative. But Vince Ready's inability to come up with proposals for a new bargaining structure is not good news, at least in the short term
Ready was supposed to report by Jan. 31 on a better way of bargaining teachers' contracts. But instead he told Labour Minister Mike de Jong that the problems were too serious, and he needed more time. He now has until March 31.
That creates big problems. The government used legislation to shut down talks with teachers last fall. Their contract was extended, unchanged, until June 30.
The law was supposed to head off any disruption in the schools. If teachers defied the legislation, the government expected the public would turn against them.
It was a miscalculation (one that I shared). Teachers launched an illegal strike, the public supported them and the union won a partial victory. Teachers got more money, and acknowledgment that class size and support for special needs students were legitimate bargaining points. The government had refused to negotiate those issues.
And Ready was tapped to find a better way of negotiating teachers' contracts.
But the one-year contract extension hasn't bought enough time.
Ready will likely meet the March deadline, but the parties will then need time to decide if his proposals are workable.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. In an effort to encourage speedy negotiations, Finance Minister Carole Taylor promised a $1-billion bonus fund for public sector groups that signed new agreements before their contracts expired March 31.
She's prepared to tap next year's budget contingency fund to offer a similar bonus for teachers - a $130-million carrot..
But it's hard to see how that money can play a useful role. Assume Ready reports March 31, and both sides take time to respond. Legislation would then likely be needed to change the bargaining structure.
That means late-April at best for a start on talks under the new model. Given the complexity of the issues, the chances for a deal by June 30 look slim.
Especially because Ready is considering big changes. His interim report didn't have much substance. He emphasized how dysfunctional the bargaining relationship has been for more than a decade, since province-wide bargaining was introduced.
And he highlighted the teachers' union proposal for a two-round bargaining process - with the right to strike available each time.
First, the union and government would negotiate the total amount available for teacher compensation, to be divided among school districts.
Then, union locals and school districts would bargain about how best to apply the money. One district might decide to hire more special needs support staff. Another might choose to pay teachers more. An isolated district might need incentives to attract teachers.
It's an interesting model. Certainly the existing bargaining structure is a failure, with the problems made worse when the Liberals outlawed negotiations on workload issues like class size.
The BCTF proposal would allow real bargaining on money, between the union and the actual decision-makers. And it would restore more local flexibility.
But it brings new problems. The union could target the weakest districts, win concessions and then demand parity. School districts and local unions lack the experience and skills to bargain effectively after a decade away from the table.
The public is unlikely to be keen on two chances for a strike in each set of talks.
And the fundamental problem remains. Teachers do not have a real right to strike. No government, left or right, will allow education to be disrupted for more than a brief period. An alternate way of resolving deadlocks - like the final offer selection proposed in the Wright report - needs to be adopted.
Realistically, that is not going to happen in the next few months.
And that means a risk of more conflict - and job action - as teachers and government bang heads in the same old way.
Footnote: The union is meeting in early March to develop its bargaining mandate, and expects talks to start soon after. The union is looking for significant wage gains, arguing teachers here have fallen behind. The government mandate suggests it expects a settlement at around 2.7 per cent a year. Add class and composition issues, and the stage i set for tough talks.

Thorpe should bail on bid to invade B.C. shoppers' privacy

VICTORIA - Rick Thorpe's bid to make Costco to hand over the shopping records of thousands of British Columbians should be dead by the end of this week.
The B.C. government has been trying to force the retail giant to hand over eight years' worth of information on British Columbians who shopped in the companies' Alberta stories - name, address, what you purchased.
The government is worried that too many people who live in communities near the B.C. border are heading into Alberta to shop so they can avoid the seven-per-cent provincial sales tax.
That costs B.C. tax revenue, perhaps $12 million a year. But the larger aim is to placate businesses on this side of the border, who complain they're losing more than $200 million in sales a year.
Thorpe's revenue ministry has been quietly pushing Costco to hand over the files for three years. The company has just made the dispute public, heading to BC Supreme Court to get an injunction blocking the government's bid.
The court ruling likely won't be necessary. Once the government's plan became public it was slammed by everyone from the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation on the right to the NDP on the left. Liberal MLA Blair Lekstrom first defended the plan, then joined the critics.
And B.C. Privacy Commissioner David Loukidelis reminded Thorpe that provincial law requires a privacy impact assessment before government launches such surveillance programs. That hasn't been done.
Thorpe initially defended the plan. But he received a report from the deputy minister of labour on the issues last week, and was to announce a decision on the plan by Friday. Expect him to back off.
The Costco gambit fails on a number of levels.
Governments have powers it can use to go after people suspected of illegally avoiding tax.
But this is a huge, intrusive fishing expedition. The data being demanded is enormous. It forces Costco into a major effort, and more importantly to violate the trust of its customers. People gave their names and addresses to Costco for its use, not to share with government.
And British Columbians' privacy - even people who paid all appropriate taxes - would be violated. The government would get a list of what they bought, and when, going back almost a decade.
The problem is real enough, especially for businesses in border towns. The chance to save $200 in provincial sales tax on a big-screen TV makes the drive to Alberta worthwhile. That's bad news for the local electronics store. (British Columbians are supposed to fill out a form and pay the sales tax voluntarily when they return home.)
But the solution is arbitrary - no other stores have been targeted - and an unwarranted attack on personal privacy.
The border communities have proposed an alternate solution. They want a special lower sales tax for border communities, reducing the benefits of cross-border shopping.
The government - after waffling for a year - rightly rejected the proposal, saying the plan would just shift the problem. If border towns had a discount sales tax rate, soon businesses in communities just a little further into B.C. would be complaining that they were losing sales.
There are bold options. The government could reverse its 25-per-cent personal income tax cut, which would bring in about $1.8 billion a year. It could then cut the sales tax to four per cent for all British Columbians, returning the same amount of money. The implications, for tax fairness and business competitiveness, would require a lot of study.
But don't expect any such major changes. The cross-border shopping problem just isn't that high a priority.
Expect more studies, as that's always a safe bet for a government in a tight spot. The province could also usefully fund local campaigns aimed at reminding people of the consequences for the local economy of shopping in Alberta.
But don't expect Thorpe to push on with the ill-conceived attack on the privacy rights of thousands of British Columbians.
Footnote: The Liberals' own past anti-tax rhetoric is part of the problem. In opposition Gordon Campbell suggested taxes steal money from peoples' pockets, and Geoff Plant likened taxes to extortion and said people were driven to evasion by excessive taxation. Not exactly the way to encourage people to obey the tax laws.

Few long-term beds, growing waits, especially for Interior, North

VICTORIA - If you’re worried about about two-tier health care, take a look at the plight of seniors outside the Lower Mainland.

The average wait for a long-term care bed in the North and Interior was almost three months in December. That’s four times as long as the wait in the Lower Mainland.

The cause is simple - the government’s failure to honour its original promise to add 5,000 new long-term care beds by the end of this year.

Only 440 beds were added in the entire province last year, according to Health Minister George Abbott. Since 2001 only 607 beds have been added.

That's a 2.5-per-cent increase in the number of spaces over almost five years. In the same period the population over 75 has increased by 16 per cent.

The result is predictable, the consequences often devastating for the seniors and their families. People who need long-term care beds wind up in hospital acute care beds, causing cancelled surgeries and jammed emergency rooms.

The problem is worst for the Interior Health Authority, where the average wait was 88 days. The Northern Health Authority was little better, at 80 days. Vancouver Island seniors faced an average wait of 56 days.

But in the Fraser Valley Health Authority, the wait was barely three weeks. In Vancouver-Coastal, it was 19 days. (It is easier to place people in densely populated areas, where there are several options within a reasonable distance. In much of the province the nearest alternative is hours away.)

Abbott said the times are better than four years ago, when seniors could spend more than a year on a waiting list.
Unfortunately that’s a meaningless comparison. The old system encouraged people to put their names on a waiting list long before they required care. Under the improved model, the wait begins when a doctor has agreed care is needed.

So how do the waits in December compare with a year earlier? The health ministry says it doesn’t know right now.

But last February Interior Health Authority chairman Alan Dolman reported that the wait was down to 60 days. Since then it has climbed by 50 per cent to 88 days.
That’s not surprising. By the end of last year the Interior Health Authority had seven-per-cent fewer long-term care beds than it had in 2001.

Have things improved? The government will say 440 beds were added across the province last year, but the number for each health authority is another secret. The health ministry wants to release that next month, when it can provide “context.”

The government’s explanation for its broken promise is that the existing long-term care beds was in worse shape than it expected. Improving those spaces used up the money that would have gone for new beds.

And Abbott says that by the end of this year there will be 2,900 additional spaces, and the government is on track to keep its new promise of 5,000 beds by 2008.

But it’s been a cruel delay, and the shortage has meant great hardship.

Some seniors can manage while they wait. Others receive the best support that sometimes overwhelmed families are able to provide.

And others end up in acute care hospital beds, where they often do very badly. They don’t get needed care and activity, their sleep and living patterns are disrupted and their conditions worsen far more quickly than if an appropriate place was available. It is a a terrible thing for a family to watch.

And since 10 to 20 per cent of hospital beds are occupied by people who have nowhere else to go, surgeries must be cancelled and emergency rooms fill with patients who can’t be admitted. Most communities across B.C. experienced the problem firsthand at some point last year.

It’s good to support seniors in their homes, and provide a range of care.

But when they need a place and more support, they should know that it will be there.

Harper’s tough job gives B.C. an opening

VICTORIA - Now the hard part starts for Stephen Harper.
He’s starting an audition today. The Conservatives can’t rest comfortably on this victory, and not just because they only managed a minority government.
The Conservatives’ success owes much to the public’s anger at the Liberals. That will fade, with the only question how long that process takes. And without that factor, the Conservatives may be another doomed government.
Harper and the Conservatives have to convince Canadians that they can govern effectively. He has to prove to skeptical centrist voters that the Liberal attacks ads about same sex marriage and reckless tax cuts were false.
And his biggest problems will be the 124 MPs sitting behind him on the government benches.
It’s been 13 years since the Conservatives were in power. For the Reform/Alliance side of the party, this is their first taste of government.
And many of the MPs elected Monday are getting ready to fly into Ottawa with great expectations. Some have accepted the need for unity and party discipline in order to win the election. They learned that lesson painfully in 2004.
But now they are going to want action. They have waited in the wilderness, and they are bound for Parliament to make big changes.
Which creates a problem for Harper. Go too far, and the public’s fears will be confirmed and the road back cleared for the Liberals.
Don’t go far enough, and the MPs who believe the Conservative party should denounce gay relationships, or launch any number of more extreme policies will get grumpy and fractious. (These are people, don’t forget, quite willing to form new parties with little chance of real political success for years.)
The successful campaign gives Harper more clout in the party. And the minority government may be a blessing. Harper can remind MPs that getting too radical could mean a brief term in government, and a long wait on the outside.
The minority government is also a good thing for British Columbia. In the 15 elections since 1958, this is only the fourth time that B.C. voters have been on the winning side and had strong representation in government.
But even in this election the Conservatives lost seats in this contrary province. Their share of the popular vote rose, but it appears that strategic voters in key ridings were just too nervous to allow Conservative wins.
Harper must do better in B.C. next time, and that means paying attention to British Columbia’s issues.
There will be some quick tests. The Conservatives promised $1 billion over 10 years to help deal with the pine beetle disaster. They said they would halt the sale of Ridley Terminal in Prince Rupert. After some fumbling they agreed to support the Kelowna Accord to assist First Nations, although they want a clearer spending plan.
Failing to deliver on any one of those would indicate B.C. is being forgotten.
And the number of cabinet seats from the province, and the jobs given to MPs like Jay Hill, Stockwell Day and Chuck Strahl, will signal Harper’s attention to B.C.
Paul Martin is right to resign. The party did better than expected, especially in B.C. But Martin is not the man to give the party a needed new start it.
His decision buys Harper time. The Liberals will now be looking inward. They will be in no rush to topple the Conservatives.
I expect many British Columbians will see these results as the best of a bunch of bad options.
The Liberals are out, the Conservatives in check.
And if Harper wants a majority next time, he has to look to B.C. The Conservatives expected a better performance in the province. Their share of the popular vote actually rose slightly, but they lost five seats.
They need to find out why so many British Columbians were still not ready to trust them in government if they ever expect a real victory.
Footnote: It will likely take until recounts are complete to determine a critical question. The NDP and Conservatives are on the edge of having a combined majority in Parliament. That would open the door to a more stable coalition, and free Harper from dependence on the Bloc Quebecois. It won’t be an easy partnership, but there are near-term advantages for both parties.

A B.C. election prediction

My best guess is that the Conservatives will win 21 seats, the NDP 10 and the Liberals five in B.C.
But there are so many close races - and strategic voting is such a factor this time - that the Conservatives could end up anywhere between 16 and 22 seats, the New Democrats between seven and 11 and the Liberals between four and 12.
Now that's a margin of error.
The prediction is based on the Conservatives winning every seat in the North and Interior except Skeena and the Southern Interior, which should both end up in the NDP column.
Here on the Island, I'm expect Keith Martin to squeak through in Esquimalt, but the NDP to take Victoria and Vancouver Island North. No changes in the other seats.
I'm expecting Bill Siksay and Peter Julian to hold Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West for the NDP, and Dawn Black to add New West-Coquitlam to the party's tally. Penny Priddy looks strong in Surrey North.
Nina Grewal will likely hang on in Fleetwood, and Phil Eidsvik will keept Newton for the Conservatives. North Van and Richmond will likely go their way.
But please don't consider this as anything other than a guess. Many of these races are incredibly close.

The $1-billion union carrot creating some worries

VICTORIA - The race is on for public sector unions hoping for a share of the $1 billion the government has set aside as an early signing bonus.
Or at least the government would like it to be.
Everyone is still being mostly positive, but the early indications is that the $1-billion bonus could prove to be a problem.
Finance Minister Carole Taylor, responsible for public sector bargaining, is trying for a new, more co-operative approach. The benefits would be both political and practical.
But the very early indications are that the way ahead is going to be bumpy.
Taylor is hoping to convince the unions that bargaining needs to be more flexible. Money shouldn't be the only issue, she says. Perhaps union members would also be interested in training, or time off or improvements in workplace conditions.
And she's abandoned official province-wide wage mandates. If some employee groups are being paid below market value - trades workers in hospitals come to mind - they could expect a larger increase than other members of their union.
It's not an easy sell. Unions like the idea of common increases, in part because they don't want to get yelled at by the members who do less well.
And it's especially tough when there is significant pent-up wage demand across the board after pay was frozen, or even cut.
Taylor has attempted to ease the way to a new style of bargaining by coming up with a reasonable amount of money. The government has allocated $4.7 billion over four years for contract settlements. That's about 2.6 per cent a year, enough to cover inflation and provide employees with a small catch-up increase.
In a bid to get faster settlements, there's another $1 billion for unions that sign before their current contracts expire - March 31 for almost all unions. That's about $3,400 for each of the 260,000 employees involved.
Taylor says the money will vanish at midnight on March 31, when the fiscal year ends. Accounting rules mean the money, from this year's surplus. has to be spent by then or it goes to debt reduction, she says.
So far unions aren’t buying the deadline. They're worried that the offer is an attempt to encourage them to rush to inferior deals, or pit one union against another.
And they warn that negotiations will be more difficult if the $1 billion is taken off the table March 31 even if an agreement is near.
It's too early to say how this will play out. The BCGEU had its first bargaining session last week, and issued a sharp criticism of the government's position on job security and contracting out. But the two sides are scheduled to meet three days a week until March 31, a sign of serious intent. (The BC Nurses Union doesn't expect to be ready to start talks until March.)
The government has added staff to support bargaining, and hired Lee Doney as a special advisor. Doney is a recently retired deputy minister, whose long career included a stint working close with unions as the head of Forest Renewal BC.
This is a big issue for the government.
Politically, the Liberals have recognized that the public has run out of patience with union-bashing and imposed contracts. The teachers ' strike was a turning point, especially the public support for the union even after the strike was declared illegal.
And practically the government has recognized that bad employee-management relations are costly. Organizations that are seen as inferior places to work either fail to attract the best candidates or pay a premium to compete with better work environments.
So far everyone involved sounds at least a little hopeful, but the practical challenge of doing deals by March 31 is enormous.
Taylor should be looking for a way to keep the $1 billion available if there is real bargaining progress as the deadline nears.
Footnote: The BC Teachers' Federation doesn't expire until June 30, and Vince Ready is still preparing a report recommending a new bargaining structure. The union will get access to an equivalent pool of money - about $130 million - to encourage a quick settlement. The money will come from the contingency fund in next year's budget.

Sad voters show need for proportional representation

VICTORIA - The email arrived from a friend with a question about voting in this election. She wanted to make sure one particular candidate was defeated in her riding.
Given that, she said, she was prepared to put aside her own first choice in favour of pragmatism. Which party has the best chance of toppling the bad guy, she asked, because that candidate would get her vote.
It’s a grim reality this election. Too many people are not happy with the choices they have been offered and are casting votes out of fear, not hope.
They are fearful that a Harper government would reduce individual rights, or launch some destructive law-and-order crusade that would make things worse in communities. They are worried that the Liberals would take electoral success as a sign that corruption and cronyism are acceptable practices. These voters see the NDP mostly as a spoiler in a few dozen ridings.
Ipsos Reid went beyond the usual questions in a late campaign poll and asked how people felt about the parties. The poll found 60 per cent of British Columbians agreed with the statement that Stephen Harper “is just too extreme to be Canada’s prime minister.” And 59 per cent agreed that “the federal Liberal party is fundamentally corrupt and doesn’t deserve to be re-elected.” The New Democrats didn't escape unscathed - 42 per cent agreed that voting NDP is just a wasted vote.”
The choice, for a significant number of Canadians, is which is the least offensive - corruption, extremism or irrelevance.
I’m sure there are voters out there looking forward to the election because they will have the chance to vote for a party offering a vision that really excites them.
I just haven’t met many of them.
There are practical problems with the kind of strategic voting that’s aimed at defeating a candidate or party. There are too few reliable riding-level polls to provide useful information about which candidate is in second place. Even with that information, it’s impossible to anticipate how other voters will react to the changing circumstances.
One obvious solution is a shift to some form of proportional representation, so that voters can be confident that their ballot will count for something more than $1.75 in government funding for the party of their choice. Supporters would be able to vote Green without wondering if they have wasted the opportunity to help chose a government. Proportional representation would ensure that Parliament more closely reflected the popular vote.
The New Democrats and the Greens support a change to proportional representation. Conservatives say - somewhat unenthusiastically - that they are willing to look at the option. Liberals say no to change.
If there is a minority government, NDP leader Jack Layton is likely to make some action on electoral change one of his conditions for offering support. (It's an issue the New Democrats could have exploited more effectively in the campaign, given public dissatisfaction with the way politics are working now.)
But right now, we have the first-past-the-post system. Many voters are struggling with the idea of strategic voting. Some are wondering how to block a party from forming government, or defeat a candidate they find objectionable.
Others are going farther. The same Ipsos poll found nine per cent of British Columbians would change their vote if they thought a Conservative majority government was in the offing.
Again, those are risky and uncertain calculations. If enough people who fear a Conservative majority government shift their votes, the unintended result could be a Liberal minority.
The real answer is reform, from the way parties nominate candidates to the way voters elect them. Voting is supposed to make you feel good - like you're choosing a future for Canada that makes you proud, and hopeful.
Too many Canadians are going to instead feel sad as they vote on Monday, and too many aren't going to vote at all.
Footnote: Voter turnout in the 2004 election was a record-low 60 per cent of registered voters. Given that many people who meet the criteria aren't registered, that means participation was around 50 per cent. The last winter election, in 1980, saw 69-per-cent turnout. That was the lowest participation level in 27 years.

Forget the Conservative surge: in B.C., the parties are right where they were in 2004 vote

B.C. remains the stubborn exception to the Conservatives' big gain this election, a fact that doesn't seem to have been much reported. It's a reality that has big implications for people looking at voting strategically.
Here's a brief news story I did on the issue.


VICTORIA -- Liberal support may have crumbled across the country, but a new poll says the party is holding its ground in B.C. as the campaign enters its last days.

After 18 months of minority government and seven weeks of campaigning, the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats have almost exactly the same level of support in B.C. they had in the 2004 election, according to the Ipsos Reid poll.

The poll found the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of decided voters in B.C., compared with their 36-per-cent share of the popular vote in the last election.

Liberal support is unchanged at 28 per cent, and the NDP has inched up a statistically insignificant two points to 29 per cent. The Greens are unchanged at six per cent.

The findings buck a national trend which has seen big gains for the Conservatives and losses for the Liberals.

Nationally, the poll found the Conservatives' 30-per-cent share of the popular vote jump to 38 per cent in the poll, taken on the weekend.

The Liberals' have seen their support plunge from 37 per cent to 26 per cent, while the NDP has gone from 16 per cent to 19 per cent.

The results suggest another tight race in B.C., with close battles expected in up to 20 ridings.

The B.C. results are surprising, said Kyle Braid of Ipsos Reid's Vancouver office. "We definitely seem to be bucking the trend, and it's got me scratching my head," he said.

Braid said Liberal support may be holding because Ottawa has come through for the province in a number of areas, including funding for transportation projects.

British Columbians' social values on issues like same-sex marriage and drug use may put them at odds with Harper's party, he said. "You can do a host of issues where British Columbians are not entirely in line with the Conservatives," he said.

And the allegations of Liberal party corruption may have less of an effect here, Braid said.

"The third theory is that in B.C. we've gotten used to scandals," he said. "That's possibly the best explanation."

University of Victoria professor Norman Ruff said B.C. is still going to be the scene of a number of critical races in Monday's election.

All three party leaders are expected to return to the province over the next few days to shore up support.

The Conservatives captured 22 of B.C.'s 36 seats in 2004. The Liberals captured eight seats and the NDP five. Chuck Cadman was elected as an independent.

The Ipsos Reid poll was conducted from Jan. 13 to Jan. 15. A total of 8,256 Canadians were surveyed, with national results considered accurate within 1.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.

Watching on election night: early indicators, and seats that matter

VICTORIA - Here's a handy guide to watching the election results roll across your TV screen Monday night, including a look at the most interesting B.C. seats.
It looks like a strong Conservative minority government - maybe 135 to 140 seats, a few more than the Liberals won in 2004.  The Liberals should win about 88, a big drop from the 135 in 2004 The NDP should gain ground, ending up with about 30 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois should stay at about 55 seats.
But who knows. This is a volatile election. People disgusted by Liberal scandals have been telling pollsters they plan to vote Conservative. But now that Paul Martin is clearly going to be punished nationally, some may support their local Liberal candidate, or opt for the NDP. The most recent Ipsos poll found nine per cent of those surveyed in B.C. say they would change their vote if a Conservative majority government seemed likely, with the Liberals most likely to gain from such a shift.
When you turn on your TV at 7 p.m., the results from Atlantic Canada should be known. The Conservatives won seven seats last time. If they're on the road to 11 seats this time, then a Harper majority government will be looking likely. Voters in the Eastern provinces have complained that Harper sees them as the slightly slow cousins in the Canadian family; if he has won them over the Conservatives will be on a roll.
The vote-counting starts in Ontario and Quebec 30 minutes before the polls close in B.C., so there won't be many results when you start watching. But if the Conservatives are leading in one or two seats in Quebec, or 45 in Ontario - they won 24 last time - then again you should start thinking majority.
But it's most likely that the outcome will still be in question as the B.C. results start coming in. The latest Ipsos poll shows almost no change in B.C. voter preference since the 2004 election, meaning about 20 close races.
Here's six seats worth extra attention.
- Skeena: The Conservatives own the Heartland's 10 seats, with two exceptions. In the Southern Interior riding Harper dumped the party's candidate over smuggling charges. The NDP will win that seat. And in Skeena incumbent New Democrat Nathan Cullen hopes to beat back a challenge from former Reform MP Mike Scott. Cullen should win; if Scott prevails, it will be a very good night for the Conservatives.
- Esquimalt: Keith Martin jumped from the Conservatives to the Liberals in 2004, and has always had a reputation as an independent MLA. But he's up against credible NDP and Conservative candidates, and has been sabotaged by the lame national Liberal campaign. (The riding has a large Canadian Forces base; Martin said his party's attack ad about soldiers in city streets was idiocy.) The riding should be a key indicator of the tide in B.C.
- Victoria: NDP candidate Denise Savoie has the highest political profile, but Robin Baird should benefit from the Conservatives' strong national campaign. David Anderson held the riding for the Liberals for 13 years, but candidate David Mulroney is much less well-known and can't argue that electing a Liberal could give the city a seat at the cabinet table. The early results could signal whether the Conservatibes or NDP will prevail in the tight two-way races.
- Fleetwood-Port Kells: Nina Grewal is trying to hold the seat for the Conservatives, hampered by the weird courtship between husband Gurmant and Ujjal Dosanjh. The Liberals have underachieving provincial Liberal Brenda Locke, rejected by voters last May, and the NDP is running the often unsuccessful candidate Barry Bell. Whoever wins, the result will signal the party's strength.
- Surrey North: Independent Chuck Cadman's riding. Based on history, it should go Conservative. But Cadman's widow Dona has endorsed former provincial cabinet minister Penny Priddy, running for the NDP. (The Conservative, David Matta, says he voted for Cadman in 2004.)
- Vancouver Centre: Svend Robinson versus Hedy Fry. Theft versus fantasies about burning crosses. I'm not sure what the results will signify, but like a car wreck it is impossible not to look.
There are others, on the Island and in Vancouver.
But focus on these six ridings, and the early returns from the East, and you'll have a sense of how this election will turn out.
Footnote: Close races, as always, could be decided by voters who stay home. The Ipsos poll found 56 per cent of those surveyed thought Harper was too extreme to be prime minister, and 64 per cent believe the Liberal Party is fundamentally corrupt. The sentiments suggest a low turnout.