Sunday, January 22, 2006

A B.C. election prediction

My best guess is that the Conservatives will win 21 seats, the NDP 10 and the Liberals five in B.C.
But there are so many close races - and strategic voting is such a factor this time - that the Conservatives could end up anywhere between 16 and 22 seats, the New Democrats between seven and 11 and the Liberals between four and 12.
Now that's a margin of error.
The prediction is based on the Conservatives winning every seat in the North and Interior except Skeena and the Southern Interior, which should both end up in the NDP column.
Here on the Island, I'm expect Keith Martin to squeak through in Esquimalt, but the NDP to take Victoria and Vancouver Island North. No changes in the other seats.
I'm expecting Bill Siksay and Peter Julian to hold Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West for the NDP, and Dawn Black to add New West-Coquitlam to the party's tally. Penny Priddy looks strong in Surrey North.
Nina Grewal will likely hang on in Fleetwood, and Phil Eidsvik will keept Newton for the Conservatives. North Van and Richmond will likely go their way.
But please don't consider this as anything other than a guess. Many of these races are incredibly close.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Will McMartin says NDP 12 Liberals 3 and the reform/alliance/ conservatives the rest.Harper is concerned about sannich and the Islands and is here today trying to shore up his candidate.You show him as a shew in.

But as both of you are hedging your bets a lot of seats are too close to call. I live two blocks from the Esquimalt riding and hear different things than you about Martin, who by the way sends his election literature to us in what will be Denise Savoise riding after Monday. But whats a little slop over the boundries because during the periods between election you and I pay for that pile of paper. Amazing what you hear in Tim Hortons . Esquimalt is supposed to be a large percentage of military voting. A large percentage of military don't vote in the riding they happen to be living in. Military folks usually vote but periodically get to change their state of residence for voting purposes. I recall only once in 22 years in the military that I voted for the guy in the riding where I was posted. That was in Edmonton and I cast my vote in Thule Greenland. The assumption that all military will vote for a individual party is whisfull thinking. I do recall being on a parade of some sort or another many years ago and they were dolling out 2 packs of cigarettes to the junior members. They were Black Cats, and I figure some Liberal MP had something to do with the making of them. We were told on the same parade to "Vote Liberal or starve to death." Both events stuck in my mind, and that was the early 50's. About that time I quit voting Liberal and as the far right was not in my idea a place to send my vote I went elsewhere. My family has the same opinion of the right wingers and they too never miss voting. So some of us with be right and late Monday will tell the tale.

Life in Victorola said...

I think Martin in Esquimalt squeaked by last election, especially with some free Green votes. Garrison's even stronger this time, the NDP message is greener and I predict a Garrison win. My guess is as good as your guess.

I thought Lunn in Saanich was still strong. I can't imagine people falling for Sheila (not Bobby) Orr.

Should be interesting...

Stephen said...

"I'm expecting Bill Siksay and Peter Julian to hold Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West for the NDP, and Steve McClurg to add New West-Coquitlam to the party's tally."

Steve McClurg isn't running for the NDP in this election. The NDP candidate in New West-Coquitlam is Dawn Black, who was MP from 1988 to 1993 and came close to re-gaining the seat in 1997. She should take it this time.

Anonymous said...

Hey, CHECK THIS OUT! It’s a ‘Godfather’ spoof election video: www.thejackproblem.ca that just got released.

It’s not your typical TV political ad – very funny and creative. Let me know what you all think…

Anonymous said...

Hey 12 42 P.M. anonymous. Pretty cute and not that far fetched. what's the old expression. This is out turn.

with a minority government, again, folks might start to understand that many other countries vote differently. When right winger like Norman Spector says it works why not give us the opportunity to give it a spin. Just think, a couple of BLOC seats in Alberta? wow, then all the parties will have to produce and make Canada a better place.

Anonymous said...

For the record...
The Results

Party Seats Votes Share

CON 17 681292 37.32%
NDP 10 521317 28.56%
LIB 09 503944 27.61%