Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Hallsor on Lunn's defeat, and the election

Bruce Hallsor was Gary Lunn's campaign manager. (And a controversial figure in the last election - see here.)
He offered a simple, but inaccurate explanation for Elizabeth May's convincing victory over Lunn this time.
Hallsor said Lunn's support stayed about the same, and May united the non-Conservative
That's only partially true. Lunn actually captured about 3,500 fewer votes than he did in 2008.
And even if he had held all his support, he would have lost this time.
Hallsor said May's success was in winning Liberal and NDP support. "We're used to having the opposition split and Elizabeth pulled it together."
There's more basis for that claim. And the vote split was a factor that produced Conservative victories in a lot of ridings this election. The number of people voting jumped by seven per cent — about 4,500 more people cast ballots than in 2008.
It appears the Greens captured the interest of non-voters and had the organization to get them to the polls.


RossK said...

In other words strategic voting, especially when folks go all in, really does work.

And, overall, it worked reasonably well in BC.

As for Ontario - not so much.

The real question is - could this be done on a party level federally?

I think it could.

And the fact of the matter is that it takes a big defeat to clear the ground so that folks can drive in the stakes to start building a new and bigger tent (see CanadianReformAllianceParty in the wake of Mulroney-assisted decimation of Kim Campbell).

But could it happen on the Center-Left?

That's the real question.

DPL said...

Lets not forget that Ms. May spent most of her time well before and during the election in the riding and spent a larger percentage of the Green's bankroll at the same time. Lunn blew a large bundle of our cash on the roundabouts to no where ( cost around 24 million) to replace one left turn lane and a traffic light.
As the locals drive by the not yet completed construction most have not nice things to say about little Garry. The NDP and Liberal Candidates were not high profile and didn't start promoting themselves a year and a half before the election.But a win for May was partly if not most a vote against Lunn, who seemed to think he was there for life. He strolled down the main drag in Sidney maybe once. Gone but not forgotten, with a nice pension and some appointment in the wings from Pee Wee Harper

Anonymous said...

Actually, Lunn's 25,000 votes is about exactly what he got in 2004 and 2006, which are better comparables than in 2008 when the NDP dropped out.