B.C. voters will decide if Harper or Martin rules

VICTORIA - There's a good chance that a British Columbia voter is going to decide whether we have a Liberal or Conservative minority government.
A lot can change, but the polls suggest an extraordinarily close election, with the two main parties looking at about 115 seats each. They need 159 for a majority.
That means that Paul Martin and Stephen Harper will have to wait until the polls close in B.C. before they find who will be prime minister. Voters in about 20 ridings here will decide which party forms the next government.
That's why you're seeing the party leaders so often. B.C. only has 36 seats to Ontario's 106, but this time each one matters. And 22 of the races in B.C. are too close to call today, with seven of them so tight that any of the three main parties could win. There are potentially critical races in every part of the province.
The Conservatives have a lock on most of the Interior and North, but even in those regions there are some battles. The New Democrats hope Nathan Cullen will hang on to Skeena-Bulkley Valley, one of their five seats, but the Conservatives have a high-profile candidate in two-term Reform MP Mike Scott.
And the New Democrats are looking to make a gain in Southern Interior, where they lost by about 700 votes in 2004. Their candidate, Alex Atamaenko is running again. Conservative incumbent Jim Gouk is retiring, and Derek Zeisman - hurt in a campaign car crash - is attempting to hold the seat for them.
But the biggest battlegrounds will be in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island.
On the Island, New Democrat Jean Crowder is a solid bet to hold on to her Nanaimo-Cowichan seat. But the other five ridings are up for grabs. The Liberals hope Keith Martin can win again in Esquimalt, and that newcomer David Mulroney can hang on to David Anderson's Victoria seat. But in those ridings and across the Island the races are too close to call.
That's also true for many of the 21 seats in the Lower Mainland. Liberals David Emerson, Stephen Owen and Ujjal Dosanjh are likely safe. The Conservatives are counting on wins in Fraser Valley ridings and the New Democrats can count on Libby Davies winning in Vancouver East.
That leaves 14 Lower Mainland ridings too close to call, with all three parties having legitimate hopes . Former NDP provincial cabinet minister Penny Priddy has a good shot at replacing Chuck Cadman in Surrey North, thanks to an endorsement from Cadman's widow. Conservative Cindy Silver - of Focus on the Family fame - hopes to topple Liberal Don Bell in North Vancouver. Liberal insider Billy Cunningham hopes to knock off one-term New Democrat MP Bill Siksay.
The politicians have seen the importance of B.C. Martin was in Vancouver and Victoria this week, announcing plans to reduce the $975 fee that immigrants are charged, a move entirely aimed at winning back voters in Vancouver's multicultural community.
It's a volatile situation, and one that's hard to read.
Most voters seem polarized between those disgusted with the Liberals, and those afraid of the Conservatives. That means we will see more strategic voting. If voters are not enthusiastic about any party, their goal can be to block the most objectionable one.
That's a challenge for all parties, but especially the New Democrats. Liberal Sheila Orr is hoping to make up a 5,000-vote deficit to topple Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Her best bet is convince some of the 14,000 NDP voters that they have a chance to prevent a Harper government, simply by voting Liberal. The New Democrats have to battle to avoid being squeezed into irrelevance.
It's good news for the province, which is getting extraordinary attention from all the parties.
And it shifts the pressure on to you. Your vote may well choose the next prime minister of Canada.
Footnote: This will be the year of strategic voting. Candidates have to establish their credibility as serious contenders, or risk seeing their support drift away. If a riding is seen as a two-way race, the third candidate is in big trouble as supporters opt to make their votes matter.