Friday, April 29, 2011

The necessity of strategic voting

If we had a better electoral system, then strategic voting would be less important.
But we don't. So if you're a New Democrat or Liberal in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and you don't want to be represented by Green candidate Elizabeth May, then you need to vote for Conservative Gary Lunn.
If you don't want a Conservative majority, then you need to vote for May.
The race is close enough that neither of the two are assured of victory. Liberals and New Democrats with a strong preference have to rethink their choice.
The same is true in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, although the choices are different. A poll on the Project Democracy website puts Conservative Troy DeSouza at 40 per cent support, New Democrat Randall Garrison at 35 per cent, Liberal Lillian Szpak at 15 per cent and Green Shaunna Salsman at 10 per cent.
So Green and Liberal voters who would prefer a Conservative MP over a New Democrat, or favour a Harper majority, should likely vote Conservative. Greens and Liberals who are worried about the possibility of an NDP-led official opposition should vote for for DeSouza.
It's a inexact business - who knows how accurate the projections are. But it's what we've got.

There's useful information on strategic voting, particularly in B.C., here.


RossK said...

Very non-partisan of you Mr. W.

Hadn't thought of Strategic Voting for the Minister of Roundabouts by progressives to stop Ms. May.


Anonymous said...

Wikileaks has released dozens of new U.S. cables that demonstrate years of behind the scenes lobbying by U.S. government officials to pressure Canada into implementing a Canadian DMCA.

The cables include confirmation that Prime Minister Harper personally promised U.S. President George Bush at the SPP summit in Montebello, Quebec in 2008 that Canada would pass copyright legislation, U.S. government lines on copyright reform that include explicit support for DMCA-style digital lock rules, and the repeated use of the Special 301 process to "embarrass" Canada into action.

In fact, cables even reveal Canadian officials encouraging the U.S. to maintain the pressure and disclosing confidential information.

Anonymous said...

"So Green and Liberal voters who would prefer a Conservative MP over a New Democrat, or favour a Harper majority, should likely vote NDP."

Are you sure about that, Paul?

seth said...

Giving the bunch of worthless malcontents in the Green Party a seat in the house would be a huge mistake that progressive voters would pay for in spades over the years. Lizzie May knows nothing about environmental issues and as such is a complete fraud.

The best STRATEGY in this case is to vote your first choice and if Lund wins he will be shut down in the next election when May disappears hopefully forever.

DPL said...

Both the NDP and Liberals would do better by improving the quality of their candidates. However last time around Brioney Penn was the Liberal candidate, The NDP guy had stepped down, and suddenly the dirty tricks started. Someone was phoning the NDP supporters telling them , they were the NDP Constituency folks and still vote for the NDP anyway.Enough of them did as supposedly instructed and Lunn beat Brioney. Strategic voting didn't work there but dirty tricks did. The cons will do just about anything to keep or gain a seat. The sleaze factor works in North Saanich. No NDP Member I know in that riding prefers Lunn, the little guy who screws up on a regular basis down in Ottawa.

paul said...

Thanks Anon 12:19. Fixed it

RossK said...

My Comprehensive Guide To Strategic Surge Voting In British Columbia is now rolling, for anybody who is interested.

(and a warning for Paul's non-progressive readers - the recommendations are all designed to Stop the Con whenever and wherever possible)


RossK said...

Sun Morning Update...Election Project now calling Esq Juan de Fuca for Dipper Garrison...