Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Predicting a Kevin Falcon third-count win

Not me. I have no idea how the Liberal leadership vote will go.
But Bernard Von Schulmann makes a good case for a Falcon-Clark final count, with a Falcon victory here.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bernard Von Schulmann - Factors that could mean I am way off [...] The party has found several thousand ineligible members and has tossed them out of the party

Justine Hunter, The Globe and Mail - B.C. Liberals chop 6,000 names from membership list

Bernard von Schulmann said...

I have changed the numbers this morning with the loss of 6000, and I get to the following:

Falcon - 2975
Clark - 2600
Abbott - 2100
de Jong - 825

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2011/02/christy-clark-front-runner.html

Still most likely to me that Falcon will win on the third count

DPL said...

Sure hope you are wrong as in my view Falcon is a bit of a wing nut who has messed up both ministries he was involved in.The most sane one in the pack is Abbott

Anonymous said...

Agree with you DPL about Abbott. I think he is the best pick for Premier in terms of experience and common sense. He also is the best bet for the party in terms of holding it all together. He even gets good marks from the right wingers. I agree, though, that Abbott's second choice will mostly go to Kevin not Christy, despite her supposedly being a "moderate" as well. The reason is that the party members esp. the influential and long time ones are looking for experience, staying with the party and Christy doesn't have it. I am going to say it will go to either Kevin or George on Saturday depending on how the regional votes come down.

Crankypants said...

Apparently Harry Bloy has sent a missive to Christy's supporters to mark their second choice for Mike deJong. Suppose those that are voting for Abbott or Falcon do the same. Further that most of the voters decline to vote for a third or fourth choice.

Now deJong is believed to be the first one eliminated, and his second choices must be for Abbott, Clark or Falcon. If a winner is not declared after the redistribution of deJong's voter's ballots, there is a possibility that no one can reach the magic number. Then what? A flip of the coin, a cut of the deck?

Another problem seems to be that a lot of members have yet to receive their pin numbers. Apparently, these people can get a replacement number, but what happened to the original ones? Did they go to non-members? Will the party executive have the foresight to cancel the pin numbers that didn't arrive to their destination? How will they know which PIN numbers to cancel if some members do not notify the party they didn't get theirs? It seems to me that there is a lot of opportunity for a less than honest election, which in my view is a great argument against any general election ever being held by phone or internet.

Anonymous said...

How can no one see that clark is NOT going to win she totally cheated like who does that she made cats change their names to kitty who want that as their leader a lier sure she is a amazing person but cheating doesnt suit it. I think Kevin is duh going to win win!!!!!!!!!!

stairmaster stepmills said...

not sure if I agree totally but I do think Kevin is going to win.