More fizzle than boom from Games benefits so far

Unless things change significantly, the economic benefits of the Winter Games are looking pretty thin.
Take jobs, one of the big selling points.
According to an economic study done for government by
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, having the Games created about 18,400 person years of employment from 2003 to the end of last year.
That sounds dramatic, but spread over six years it's about 3,000 additional jobs at any given time.
Nothing to sneer at, but with about 2.2 million people employed in the province, not that significant either.
Especially when at least some increased employment would have resulted if the money spent on the Games went for other projects or was left in taxpayers' pockets.
The report on increased economic activity from the Games tells a similar story. The report found that the Games had meant an extra $685 million to $890 million in economic activity over the six-year period.
Take the midpoint, and that's about $130 million a year.
Given that the provincial GDP is about $150 billion, that's less than one-tenth of one per cent.
You could argue that these results aren't surprising. They're consistent with a forecast of Games benefits done for the government in 2002.
But they're a far cry from the rosy picture painted by politicians talking about the dramatic economic benefits from next year's festivities.
And in one area - possibly the most important for British Columbians outside Greater Vancouver and Whistler - the forecast got it badly wrong.
The 2002 report predicted increased tourism revenues during the period of $40 to $600 million between 2003 and 2008.
Based on the midpoint, that would have translated into some 6,500 person-years of increased employment
The PriceWaterhouseCoopers report found there was no increase in tourism as a result of the Olympics. The expectation that increased awareness would lead to more visitors to the province was wrong. The report estimates the Games have likely meant about 10 additional jobs in the tourism sector each year.
That should be a particular concern to communities outside the immediate Games area. Vancouver, Richmond, Surrey and Whistler all end up with guaranteed Games legacies - buildings and infrastructure. Much of the spending by Games organizers, from salaries to supplies, also benefited those communities. And realistically, the promised potential future investment is likely to provide the greatest boost to those areas.
The rest of the province has fared less well. Leaving aside nice but hardly essential items like Spirit Squares, the Games so far have represented a transfer of tax dollars to the Lower Mainland.
Tourism gains should have broader benefits. The theory is that travellers, newly aware of B.C.'s charms because of the Games, would likely venture beyond the Lower Mainland.
According to the 2002 report, the biggest tourism gains are still ahead. It set out several scenarios, but the mid-range forecast projected about $2.9 billion in increased tourism because of the Games between 2008 and 2014.
The failure to achieve the increase forecast for the initial period raises doubts about those numbers.
It's especially troubling that the failure might be partly self-inflicted. The PWC report notes the 2002 projections envisioned that "a co-ordinated and effective marketing plan would be in place" before the Games. It wasn't.
The government had warnings about the problem. In 2003, the auditor general noted a well-planned, well-funded marketing effort was needed to seize the potential benefits from the Games.
In a follow-up report in 2006, the auditor general noted that hasn't happened. "The marketing effort to date has been delayed and unco-ordinated, with no central agency taking the lead," the report warned.
The confusion continues. Tourism Minister Kevin Krueger eliminated Tourism B.C., the highly regarded industry marketing agency, without warning of consultation in August.
The big opportunities for tourism promotion are coming in the next three or four months.
For British Columbians outside Greater Vancouver, benefits from the Games depend on how well the job is handled.
Footnote: It's important to note that the benefits, except for tourism, are much as projected in the 2002 report. Which raises questions about the level of scrutiny and analysis brought to the report by journalists and politicians and policy groups. The pro-Games rhetoric drowned out the few cautionary voices.