The Hebei Lion, and why you should worry, at least a bit, about tanker traffic

A proposed pipeline to get oil from the tar sands to Kitimat and then into ships that would sail off to China has sparked a new debate about tanker traffic along B.C.'s coast.
There would be a lot of construction jobs, a small number of permanent employees in Kitimat and a boost in Canada's exports.
The risk is that something would go wrong and there would be an oil spill.
Proponents say that won't happen. But on Thursday night, the winds were howling in the Strait of Georgia. The bulk carrier Hebei Lion was anchored off Mayne Island, but the gusts pushed it onto a reef. It was a serious environmental threat.
That was Wednesday night. Have you heard about the grounding of the ship, which is as long as two-and-a-half football fields?
I didn't until today - Saturday afternoon. And then, only thanks to the Washington State environment ministry, (or the department of ecology, it's called).
It issued a news release.

"Ecology was notified by the British Columbia Ministry of Environment, and monitored the incident because it posed a significant risk of a large black oil spill," the Washington government told the public.
“Damage to fuel tanks on a cargo ship that size could have oiled the islands on both sides of the border,” said Dale Jensen, manager of Ecology's Spill Prevention, Preparedness and Response Program. “A major spill also could have forced a closure to vessel traffic. Given the profound environmental and economic risks we're relieved and pleased at the outcome. We mobilized staff and were prepared to deploy response systems as needed.
"State Sen. Kevin Ranker, who represents the 40th District, including his San Juan Island home, said, “This incident once again highlights the importance of having a strong spill prevention and response system in place, not only for Puget Sound but also for large transboundary spills that can have potentially devastating effects on our environment and economy.”

So the B.C. Environment Ministry told Washington State, but provided no information to British Columbians.
The DFO, as far as I can tell, provided no public information.
The Gullf Islands Driftwood had the story by Thursday afternoon.
But 72 hours after an incident that "could have oiled the islands on both sides of the border," according to the government of Washington State, only a small number of British Columbians knew about the grounding. Governments were silent.
The argument for tanker traffic relies heavily on the effectiveness and accountability of governments in protecting the public interest.
But only Washington seemed to think this important enough to tell the public about. The B.C. and Canadian governments didn't think you needed to know.

A late addition: For more on the grounding, check out the posts here.

The need for an Afghan detainee inquiry

I'll write about this in the next day or two, but, for now, I recommend Norman Spector's brief, useful comments here.

The sad story of the passengers' bill of rights

This is a story about a proposed airline passenger’s bill of rights. It suggests, most of all, that those at the top of government aren’t serving the public. They’re catering to the needs of powerful special interests.
The story starts in 2008. Liberal MP Gerry Byrne prepared a motion calling on the government to introduce an airline passenger’s bill of rights. Travellers would be guaranteed remedies for lost bags, unreasonable delays or overbooked flights. The model was similar to protection in Europe.
Politically, it’s a winner. Most people fortunate enough to be able to fly have had bad experiences. Sometimes, the airline has responded admirably. But sometimes, not.
MPs from all parties professed to support the idea, including then transport minister Lawrence Cannon.
But behind the scenes, his office was pleading with the airlines to launch a lobby campaign to defeat the motion, according to documents obtained by Canwest News Service.
While Cannon was promising to bring in a travellers’ bill of rights, a key political staffer in his office was telling the airlines the Conservatives really wanted it killed.
Lobby the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois, Paul Fitzgerald e-mailed the airlines. “I don’t want us to be forced into regulating passenger protection issues.”
It’s creepily dishonest. The minister is pretending to stand up for passengers while his staff is rallying the industry to kill protection.
The government could legitimately oppose such consumer protection. The airlines argued safety would be compromised. Pilots might take off in dangerous conditions if they feared their employer would have to compensate passengers for delays.
More realistically — I hope, as a passenger who relies on those pilots — the Conservatives could argue that protection is not needed because market forces ensure airlines don’t abuse customers, because they would lose business.
But that’s not what happened. The minister claimed the protection was necessary and he supported the measures.
It gets worse.
The motion passed in Parliament with the support of all parties, and the government set about drafting the protection.
Canwest News Service filed a freedom of information request for files on the process. Usually, documents are censored to the point of uselessness. This time, apparently by mistake, the full documents were released.
They showed the minister’s office — despite concerns from non-political Transport Department staff — let the airlines play a major role in drafting the measures. Company executives reviewed several drafts of Flight Rights Canada, as the initiative came to be called. They proposed changes and approved the final version.
The airline bosses even got to approve Cannon’s speech launching the program in advance.
It was sensible to involve the airlines in the process. They can provide useful information on the effects of any passenger protection.
But the government didn’t seek input from consumer associations or the travel industry or groups that could speak for business travellers. They catered to the industry, not the public.
The department staff also told the minister there was no money to let travellers know about their rights.
But he went ahead and read the industry-approved announcement, promising an information campaign that has never happened.
The government has spent a total of $3,640 to let airline passengers across Canada know about their rights.
So, to recap, MPs decided airline passengers needed some basic protection if flights were cancelled without good reason or their bags vanished.
The government pretended to go along, while working behind the scenes with the airlines to try and sabotage the initiative. Their loyalty was to the big corporations.
The minister’s office was attentive to the needs of the airline companies. The public interest was a problem to be managed, not a priority.
This isn’t a Liberal-Conservative thing. I have no confidence that the cozy relationships between the powerful depend on party labels. Mostly, it’s a sad example of how little the interests of voters really matter to those in power.
Footnote: The government’s failure to respect the 2008 motion brought a new private member’s bill from Manitoba NDP MP Jim Maloway to provide travellers with protection modelled on the European Union’s consumer protection for passengers. The Conservatives oppose the protection.

Barry Penner is awesome

No, that's not my political commentary. I do think he's a good MLA who works hard and wants to do a good job.
But over at barrypennerisawesome.com the creators have dedicated a whole website to "Chronicling the adventures of B.C.'s most awesome MLA."
It's clever fun.
(And thanks to Brenton Walters for posting about the site dedicated to the Chilliwack MLA and environment minister.)

MLA Norm Letnick shows how it's done

I certainly think Liberal MLA Norm Letnick is right about the risks of the government's ill-advised bill that would let police use force to take people to shelters in bad weather, for reasons set out here.
But, in explaining to Sean Holman why he voting against the legislation, Letnick also showed how MLAs can take advantange of Gordon Campbell's promise to allow free votes to use their own judgment and represent the people who elected them.
You can see Letnick's explanation at publiceyeonline.com.

Minister for welfare, housing and horse racing

Rich Coleman might be great at juggling priorities, but I'd argue a ministry dealing with housing issues - from condo concerns to homelessness to affordability - and income assistance and job training should focus on those priorities.
Tossing gambling and liquor sales into the mix just because the minister is interested doesn't make good management sense.
(Sean Holman has interesting additional information here.)

NEWS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
November 17, 2009

Ministry of Housing and Social Development

NEW MANAGEMENT AIMS TO REVITALIZE HORSE RACING INDUSTRY

VANCOUVER – The new B.C. Horse Racing Industry Management Committee will help to revitalize and restore financial strength to the province’s horse racing industry, Housing and Social Development Minister Rich Coleman announced today.
“Across North America, the horse racing industry is confronted with competing entertainment attractions that necessitate new, innovative approaches to this sector,” said Coleman. “Here in B.C., the Province is working with leading industry and business experts to help horse racing thrive, with a strong, coherent new management approach that includes centralized financial planning.”

Ontario makes Campbell look bad on HST

It was a dramatic tale of two different approaches to governing this week.
In Ontario, the government introduced HST legislation Monday, setting out the details of the new tax which will take effect July 1, as it will here.
The plans include other big tax cuts and a promise that the total government tax take will fall by $7.7 billion over the next four. Families will get a $1,000 rebate to cover the added costs. Seminars are already underway around the province for businesses.
In B.C., the legislation won't be introduced until next spring. The government acknowledges families will face higher taxes, with much smaller offsetting reductions.
And poor Finance Minister Colin Hansen couldn't even say Monday whether school districts would get funding to cover some $40 million in extra costs because of the harmonized sales tax.
Two governments, heading in the same direction, but in very different ways.
Both know voters will find the new tax tough to swallow. Only Ontario is making much of an effort to win them over.
You could argue that the Liberal government in Ontario is buying support with other tax cuts. This week, it announced HST exemptions for fast food under $4 and newspapers. But seminars on the new tax for small business, in their communities, are simply good, competent government. Clear rules well in advance of implementation help everyone.
The Campbell government is looking inept, or indifferent, in comparison.
That's not good. The Liberals promised, in writing, not to introduce the HST during the May election campaign - and then did just that. Hansen's claim the tax was "not even on the radar" during the campaign makes the decision to introduce it a few weeks later look reckless and ill-considered.
Here's the primer on the HST. It's a new tax that will combine the seven-per-cent provincial sales tax and the five-per-cent GST. For many items, adult clothing for example, there is no net change.
But the GST applies to more things than the provincial sales tax. Provincial governments introduced exemptions, like no PST on bicycles to promote health. Services, like cable or child care, attracted GST but not the provincial tax.
Under the harmonized tax, the GST rules take precedence. A lot more things will be taxed.
The GST also lets businesses deduct the sales tax they pay for inputs. Treating the PST the same way will save B.C. businesses about $1.9 billion. Individuals and families will pay more to offset the business tax break.
The theory is that companies will pass the benefits on in lower prices and B.C. will be more attractive for businesses investors because of lower tax costs.
The provincial government has not been forthcoming with information on what it means for families.
But TD Economics, the analytical arm of the big bank, has released a special report on the tax that offers a useful starting point.
Individuals and families will pay more, the report concludes, as "The tax burden will shift from businesses to consumers."
The TD Economics analysis estimates about 20 per cent of British Columbians' expenditures will now face an additional seven-per-cent tax.
An average household will pay an extra $840 in taxes. But the analysis also projects that businesses will pass on some of the savings from reduced taxes to consumers. That will cut the actual net increase in costs to $400.
The TD Economics report favours the harmonized tax. It's more efficient, it says, and will help Canadian businesses compete for domestic and international markets, the report said.
And the B.C. government continues to cite to the need to offer tax breaks to the forest industry and other big businesses.
But as the legislature finance committee found in its budget consultations, the public isn't buying it. The HST remains unpopular; most submissions said it should not be introduced.
Ontario's government faces the same backlash. But it's doing much more to inform people and try to win them over.
Footnote: The TD Economics' report says the tax will add about 0.7 per cent to the rate of inflation to the province, as the costs of consumer goods and services rise.

Rich, Geoff here - can we talk liquor policy?

Rich Coleman and Geoff Plant spent five years in opposition battling the NDP, and four more years in cabinet as the solicitor general and attorney general respectively.
And now a big private liquor store owner has hired Plant to lobby Coleman for changes that would boost the company's profits.
Plant is a lawyer and smart. Perhaps he would be in demand for such jobs based on his experience and those qualities alone.
But if I were a smaller liquor company, or a community group concerned about increasingly wide open alcohol sales, I'd wonder if Plant also had better access and influence than most to Coleman, after the two spent nine years working together.
And whether that meant I needed to hire someone else - another insider - to make sure I had the ear of the powerful.
You can read it more at publiceyeonline.com, where Sean Holman had the story first. (He does that quite a lot.)

More fizzle than boom from Games benefits so far

Unless things change significantly, the economic benefits of the Winter Games are looking pretty thin.
Take jobs, one of the big selling points.
According to an economic study done for government by
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, having the Games created about 18,400 person years of employment from 2003 to the end of last year.
That sounds dramatic, but spread over six years it's about 3,000 additional jobs at any given time.
Nothing to sneer at, but with about 2.2 million people employed in the province, not that significant either.
Especially when at least some increased employment would have resulted if the money spent on the Games went for other projects or was left in taxpayers' pockets.
The report on increased economic activity from the Games tells a similar story. The report found that the Games had meant an extra $685 million to $890 million in economic activity over the six-year period.
Take the midpoint, and that's about $130 million a year.
Given that the provincial GDP is about $150 billion, that's less than one-tenth of one per cent.
You could argue that these results aren't surprising. They're consistent with a forecast of Games benefits done for the government in 2002.
But they're a far cry from the rosy picture painted by politicians talking about the dramatic economic benefits from next year's festivities.
And in one area - possibly the most important for British Columbians outside Greater Vancouver and Whistler - the forecast got it badly wrong.
The 2002 report predicted increased tourism revenues during the period of $40 to $600 million between 2003 and 2008.
Based on the midpoint, that would have translated into some 6,500 person-years of increased employment
The PriceWaterhouseCoopers report found there was no increase in tourism as a result of the Olympics. The expectation that increased awareness would lead to more visitors to the province was wrong. The report estimates the Games have likely meant about 10 additional jobs in the tourism sector each year.
That should be a particular concern to communities outside the immediate Games area. Vancouver, Richmond, Surrey and Whistler all end up with guaranteed Games legacies - buildings and infrastructure. Much of the spending by Games organizers, from salaries to supplies, also benefited those communities. And realistically, the promised potential future investment is likely to provide the greatest boost to those areas.
The rest of the province has fared less well. Leaving aside nice but hardly essential items like Spirit Squares, the Games so far have represented a transfer of tax dollars to the Lower Mainland.
Tourism gains should have broader benefits. The theory is that travellers, newly aware of B.C.'s charms because of the Games, would likely venture beyond the Lower Mainland.
According to the 2002 report, the biggest tourism gains are still ahead. It set out several scenarios, but the mid-range forecast projected about $2.9 billion in increased tourism because of the Games between 2008 and 2014.
The failure to achieve the increase forecast for the initial period raises doubts about those numbers.
It's especially troubling that the failure might be partly self-inflicted. The PWC report notes the 2002 projections envisioned that "a co-ordinated and effective marketing plan would be in place" before the Games. It wasn't.
The government had warnings about the problem. In 2003, the auditor general noted a well-planned, well-funded marketing effort was needed to seize the potential benefits from the Games.
In a follow-up report in 2006, the auditor general noted that hasn't happened. "The marketing effort to date has been delayed and unco-ordinated, with no central agency taking the lead," the report warned.
The confusion continues. Tourism Minister Kevin Krueger eliminated Tourism B.C., the highly regarded industry marketing agency, without warning of consultation in August.
The big opportunities for tourism promotion are coming in the next three or four months.
For British Columbians outside Greater Vancouver, benefits from the Games depend on how well the job is handled.
Footnote: It's important to note that the benefits, except for tourism, are much as projected in the 2002 report. Which raises questions about the level of scrutiny and analysis brought to the report by journalists and politicians and policy groups. The pro-Games rhetoric drowned out the few cautionary voices.

The bigger problem at B.C. Ferries

It's understandable that the comptroller general's findings about overly rich executive and board pay and sloppy governance at B.C. Ferries grabbed headlines.
But the report raised a much more serious problem. The new structure for ferry service the Liberal government set up in 2003 failed to provide any criteria for considering the public interest, in terms of travellers, ferry dependent communities or the economic impacts of soaring fares.
The Times Colonist set out the problems clearly in this editorial.
Will the government act? One bad sign is that the comptroller general's recommendations included having the Ferry Commission regulate reservation fees, currently outside its mandate. The commissioner has been seeking that small change since 2004,. noting that the fees - $17.50 and a $12-million revenue stream for the corporation - are part of the fare structure.
In nine years, the government hasn't responded to that basic request.

UVic hits the media motherlode

The University of Victoria has a superb communications department, consistently providing interesting and useful leads for journalists and great at finding an expert in almost any area.
But this release is inspired. The interest in anything Twilight is extraordinary. TIming is excellent. And the issues are important.
This is really good work.


MEDIA TIPS AND LEADS

TWILIGHT SERIES SENDS WRONG MESSAGE TO GIRLS: According to UVic political science professor Janni Aragon, the Twilight vampire movies and books don’t provide a healthy portrayal of the interaction between the sexes. That is just one of the points she makes when she uses the series as a teaching tool in her gender and politics class at UVic.
“Bella Swan is a human teenager, moody, sardonic and clumsy which plays into how Edward Cullen interacts with her—he’s protective, condescending and behaves like a stalker,” says Aragon. “He watches her while she’s sleeping even though he hasn’t been invited to do so. He talks down to her, which plays into the myth that in a relationship boys are all knowing and girls are supposed to follow and listen to them.”
Aragon remarks that in the beginning of the series, Bella doesn't have a very strong sense of self. She leans on Edward, falls apart when he leaves. “He has bigger burdens to carry, since he’s a vampire and she is a mere mortal teen,” says Aragon. “He is in charge—and takes care of Bella, who continues to be the damsel in distress.
“In New Moon, Bella suffers a horrible depression when Edward abandons her. She has visions and starts being reckless which sends a message to young women that when your boyfriend leaves, the expectation is for you to be out of control. In real life, not every woman does that—some of us just consume a couple of tubs of Häagen-Dazs and we’re over it.”
Aragon says she also has issues on how the Stephanie Meyer books and films address Indigenous people. For example, the vampires refer to them as mongrels or dogs.
The Twilight Saga: New Moon, the second movie in the Twilight series, is scheduled to open on November 20, 2009.

Why I'm glad an MLA is bashing the Charter of Rights

On one hand, MLA Pat Pimm's preference for getting rid of the Charter or Rights is alarming. It suggests that he's a lot more comfortable with government intrusions into the private lives of citizens than he should be.
But it is refreshing to have a new MLA who isn't sticking to a script crafted by communication staff. Pimm is, so far, apparently willing to say what he thinks, even if it's not in line with party policy.
Pimm is a Liberal, newly elected in Peace River North to replace Senator Richard Neufeld.
And in one of his first speeches, during debate on a bill to deny welfare to people facing outstanding arrest warrants, he took aim at the Charter.
"I just don't think it's a good document whatsoever myself," Pimm said in the legislature. "For 99 per cent of the people out there, that document doesn't even need to exist, first off. It's only about one per cent or two per cent of the people that it's even developed for, and it's to keep the lawyers and the judges and everybody working to support the system." (Thanks to the Lower Langdale Tattler, an irregular publication of NDP MLA Nicholas Simons, for reporting Pimm's comments.)
What the Charter does is set out the basic rights of Canadians. We can say what we think and follow our religious beliefs without government intrusion. Basic principles of justice have to be followed if the state wants to interfere with our lives.
Police can, for example, search our homes, but only if they have a good reason.
Pimm's position appears to be that decent citizens don't need their rights protected. Governments know best about what must be done for the greater good.
That's too trusting. The world is celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, a reminder that governments can't always be counted in to respect the rights of citizens.
It is troubling when a drug dealer avoids trial because a police search violated his rights.
But that's the trade we make for enshrining the rule of law and our own freedom from government messing in our lives.
Still. Pimm was speaking his mind. A lot of his constituents would likely share his views. That's good for an MLA. And not all that common.
MLAs and cabinet ministers, especially in government, tend to avoid saying anything.
Consider the example recently offered by Ida Chong, junior minister for healthy living. Two health officials in Alberta have been fired because the Calgary Flames jumped the queue for H1N1 flu vaccinations.
So Chong was asked whether the Vancouver Canucks would get special access to flu shots, ahead of vulnerable members of the public.
The answer should be easy. No, the vaccine would be provided based on health needs. A vulnerable five-year-old or pregnant woman would be protected before an incredibly fit professional hockey player.
But Chong instead, offered this response. "I believe that what is important is that those who need access to this vaccine to mitigate the possible spread will be looked at by our health experts," she said.
It was an easy question. On principle, should the survival of a child come before the playoff chances and profitability of hockey team?
And Chong is no fool. But politicians are told to say nothing. And they do, even when it makes them look ridiculous.
All in all, I'm rooting for Pimm. The voters sent him down to the legislature to speak for them, based on his experience in business, community sports and municipal government. They know him. He's wrong on the importance of the Charter, but at least he is saying what he thinks.
Imagine 85 MLAs, from all across the province, with different individual skills and experience and perspectives, debating and listening and learning from each other and really shaping government policy. Still committed to core party principles, but not blindly.
That's how our government is supposed to work. Our representatives, making decisions based on their best judgments about what is good for the people they represent.
Instead, MLAs sign up for their teams and do what they're told.
Footnote: You can judge the level of MLAs' independence. The legislature sessions are televised, though they're off this week. Question period, about 1:50 p.m., offers a chance to assess their efforts and let them know what you think.

The Berlin Wall and Prague's haunting ghosts

The 20th anniversary of the Berlin Wall's end comes two years after my only visit to the former Soviet bloc.
It's not Berlin that comes first to mind. It's Prague, and the Museum of Communism. The museum is small, up a broad staircase on the second floor of a grand old building. A McDonalds is next door.
I went alone, on a bright spring day. Inside, the rooms were gloomy. The artifacts of 41 years of totalitarian communist rule were grim.
They showed how governments could easily construct a false reality, where enemies threaten and only a strong state can keep citizens safe.
But what brought tears to my eyes me were the video displays and writings in which Czechs looking back on the Prague spring of 1968. For eight months, under a reform government, change seemed possible.
Then the Soviet tanks rolled in.
For several months, people fought back, at great cost. Until the hopes were destroyed and they gave up.
The occupation lasted another 21 years, until it collapsed after the Berlin Wall came down on Nov. 9, 1989.
What was so sad?
The crushed hopes, for certain. The museum's black and white films showed protesters flooding into Prague's streets to demand freedom and democracy, defying police and army and censorship.
The fearlessness, too, and the obvious belief that an army of citizens could triumph over an army of guns and tanks.
But sadder than all that were the doubts and regrets. It was in the people's eyes as they talked about the collapse of the democracy movement.
What if, they must have wondered, we had fought a little longer, accepted more deaths, pushed back a little harder? Could that form of oppression been thrown off 20 years earlier?
There is no harder question.
Walking through the museum, I wondered how deep the scars still must be. No one who lived through the period could have escaped them.
The people who saw injustice and oppression lived with the questions about what they, and didn't do, to resist and whether they shied away from a just and important struggle. Each person had to decide if he was sensible, or scared.
A lot of people chose sensible. Some informed on neighbours or worked hard to support the Communist state. They too must have wondered about their choices.
Berlin was certainly haunting - the memorials to those killed trying to cross the wall, the preserved subway stations, closed for more than 40 years because they would have allowed East Berliners to simply step off the train and walk up into West Germany.
But the little museum in Prague was terribly sad and raised very hard questions, at least for me.
There was no character flaw in the Czech and Slovakian people or the East Germans or any of the other people who spend so long under Soviet oppression. They were not, except for their circumstances, much different from us.
As a child of the Cold War, the power of fear is easily understandable. When the warning sirens went, usually by accident, children in my Toronto suburb paused to see if the Russian a-bombs were about to fall. I pondered whether there were local targets worthy of a nuclear missile and calculated the odds that a Russian bomb aimed at Buffalo would miss land in my subdivision.
And as thousands of people gather in Berlin to celebrate the wall's fall, I wonder about the reality our states are constructing today.
Most Czech citizens, I expect, accepted the world their governments created, deferred to authority, made the best of their lives. As we do.
That is not, for a second, to compare the Soviet bloc governments and our own.
But as I emerged into the sun and walked Prague's beautiful streets, through the squares where thousands gathered, I felt both sadness and admiration. When tested, they had risked much in a bid for freedom.
Footnote: Equally haunting is a monument in Wenceslas Square in Prague, a curling cross set into on the ground. In January 1969, Jan Palach, a 20-year-old Czech history student, set himself on fire to protest the Soviet invasion that crushed the Prague Spring and brought 20 more years of winter.

Putting a price on greenhouse gas cuts

It has taken a big bank to bring some focus to the talk about fighting climate change and Canada's role.
And, on balance, the news is good. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced significantly without too much economic damage.
But there will be costs and the burden is going to hit some industries and regions much harder than others. And the changes are going to have to start happening much more quickly.
Governments have been vague on all those details.
So when TD Economics released a report suggesting Alberta and Saskatchewan would take the biggest hit from greenhouse gas reduction efforts, there was a flurry of headlines, hand wringing and criticism from politicians.
The report, commissioned by the TD Bank's economics branch, identified the impact of different levels of carbon emission reductions.
Heading into world climate talks in Copenhagen next month, the Harper government has pledged to reduce emissions to 20 per cent below 2006 levels by 2020. That's the equivalent of three-per-cent below 1990 emission levels. And a big step back from the Kyoto Accord, which called for a 5.2 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2012.
B.C. has already committed to a 33-per-cent reduction from 2006 levels by 2020.
And the TD Economics study also looked at much more ambitious cuts that would take emissions to 25 per cent below 1990 levels in the same period. That's the minimum reduction the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change said is needed from western nations.
The good news is that both targets can be hit without huge overall economic impact.
The bad news is that there will be some hard-hit sectors and regions.
First, the big picture. Meeting the Harper government's target would mean reduced economic growth, but the pain is moderate.
The study's computer model predicts that cutting emissions by 20 per cent would mean overall Canadian economic output would be 1.5 per cent lower in 2020. That's about $20 billion - not chicken feed.
But the reduction would be spread over a decade. Annual national GDP growth would be just under 2.3 per cent instead of 2.4 per cent. Significant, but not wrenching.
This matters because economic growth means, as a rule, more jobs and higher pay. Slower growth means fewer opportunities.
Even meeting the much greater reduction sought by the international panel would mean less than half of one per cent a year in lost economic growth.
Here's where it all gets interesting.
The TD Economics' report assumes the government is going to put a price on carbon emissions, through cap and trade and a carbon tax like the one B.C. has introduced.
Industries that don't produce greenhouse gases will roll along happily. Those that do will face big extra costs.
The report says this would create "a major structural change in the Canadian economy," away from carbon emitting industries, like the oil and gas sector and coal mining. Mining, smelting, trucking and others would also suffer.
And since the oil and gas industry is significant in Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C., those provinces take the big hit.
While meeting the Harper government's targets would mean 1.5 per cent less economic growth over the next decade, Alberta would be reduced by 8.5 per cent; Saskatchewan 2.8 per cent; and B.C. by 2.5 per cent. (Or about 4.5 per cent, based on the Campbell government's more aggressive commitments.)
That's a significant cost, but not crippling. And it has to be balanced against the costs of doing nothing. If forest fires continue to worsen and droughts bring water shortages and forests grow more slowly as global temperatures rise, the province's economy suffers.
One of the challenges in all this is trust. Things will get more expensive as carbon taxes are implemented, the study assumes. But governments will get a huge windfall in new tax revenue and return it to people. They'll be OK.
The bottom line? Kudos to TD Economics, for bringing clarity to the fuzzy world of climate change.
Footnote: The economic model comes from Marc Jaccard and Associates. Jaccard is a Simon Fraser University professor and deservedly influential analyst, with no political agenda. It is interesting to note the assumptions include significant change, including a 100-per-cent shift to electric heating for new construction in B.C.

A man with no hands gets no jail time

UPDATE

I wrote last week about Terry Bazzani, a man with no hands and other physical problems, who was caught on what he said was his first trip as a drug mule. The Crown wanted a penitentiary term. The defense argued the punishment would be far to severe for Bazzani, who can't feed or clean himself, brush is teeth or, of course, defend himself.
The case, I maintained. showed the foolishness of mandatory minimum sentences, which many politicians want for such crimes.
Justice Keith Bracken this week rejected the Crown prosecutor's argument. Bazzani will serve a two-year sentence under house arrest, with relaxed conditions.

Surgery cuts encourage private two-tier care

It doesn't matter what the intentions are. The Campbell government's actions are resulting in a shift to two-tier health care in B.C.
People who can pay get fast, effective treatment. The rest of British Columbians wait, suffer and get sicker.
Earlier this month, the Vancouver Island Health Authority said provincial funding was inadequate to maintain health care services. It chopped surgeries and support for seniors and people with mental illness.
For example, last year the health authority did 124 bariatric surgeries. The operations help obese people who have been unable to lose weight in less extreme ways. Their stomachs are made smaller or bowels shortened to reduce the absorption of calories the number of bariatric surgeries.
It's not easy to get on the list for the surgery, which is expensive and, of course, carries risks. Patients who receive referrals have tried other ways of losing weight and face serious health complications from obesity.
Tough luck, some would say. Try harder or suffer.
That ignores the reality of their illnesses. And it ignores the great costs that the system would face in coming years if they remain obese. Pragmatically, effective treatment is a good investment.
Last year, the health authority performed 124 of the procedures in Victoria. This year, it will cut the number to 80. Next year, it will reduce the number of surgeries to 52.
Demand hasn't fallen. The wait for treatment is measured in years.
But the health authority's provincial funding for this year falls $45 million short of what is needed to provide health care services. The gap will be greater next year.
So patients won't be treated.
Unless they have money.
The False Creek Surgical Centre, a private clinic in Vancouver, has been advertising an information centre in Victoria next weekend on its weight loss surgery. People can register for a presentation with light snacks and a chance to have questions answered. A similar session is planned for Kelowna later in the month.
It's a good business move. There are desperate people who have waited several years for surgery who now face an even longer wait. The surgical centre can offer them speedy, effective treatment.
Or the centre can if they have about $17,000 to cover the costs of lap band surgery and follow-up. The procedure involves placing an inflatable ring around the upper stomach, limiting the amount of food the person can eat and increasing the length of time to digest the food.
Bravo, say some people. If I can pay extra to jump the queue for other things, for higher quality treatment, why not for health care?
But so far Canadians have decided that health care is different. We have, after a fierce public discussion, decided that when care is rationed, it shouldn't be auctioned off the to the highest bidder.
If two people have an illness, then the decision on who gets treatment is to be based on medical need.
We've even written the principle into law. The Canada Health Act and B.C.'s Medicare Protection Act say people cannot pay extra for speedier treatment for any medically necessary procedure.
But the law is routinely ignored. Private clinics have pushed the boundaries in offering more and more surgery to those who can pay for faster treatment.
You can't argue credibly that the weight-loss surgery isn't medically necessary.
For starters, the diagnosis of medical need has already been accepted by the health-care system, at least for people on the wait list.
The False Creek Surgical Centre emphasizes the point. Obesity is not the result of a lack of willpower; "It's a disease that requires treatment."
And the centre also points out that the surgery can reduce patients' risk of diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancer and other serious conditions.
I certainly don't fault people who decide to pay for the surgery. I probably would.
But the combination of surgical cutbacks and inaction on the expanding role of private clinics is taking us a long way from the principles of medicare - and the laws that set them out.
Footnote: The issue might end up being resolved in the courts. Four private clinics are challenging the government's ability to enforce the Medicare Protection Act. And a group of patients are suing to require the government to enforce the act.

Get ready to chip $106 for the new B.C. Place roof

Can B.C. taxpayers really can afford $458 million for a fancy new roof on B.C. Place?
Especially right now. The government has chopped funding to fix leaky schools. Health authorities are cancelling thousands of surgeries to save money. School parents' groups, people who work with seniors, mental health programs - the government says there is no money to keep on supporting them. Youth sport funding has been chopped.
But for a Vancouver stadium and its two main pro sports teams, the government can find almost $500 million from taxpayers.
Which works out to about $106 per British Columbian - say $425 for a family of four. If they live in Prince George or Nelson, it's a big bill for a stadium they will likely only see on TV.
The government justifies the project on two grounds. Tourism Minister Kevin Krueger said the project will create 3,000 per years of employment. But that's a cost of more than $150,000 for each one-year job. The government could create the same employment at much lower cost simply by reversing cuts that have meant layoffs across the province.
And Krueger says a retractable roof will result in greater use of B.C. Place and indirect economic benefits for Vancouver.
You own the stadium. It's operated by a Crown corporation, Pavco, which also runs the Vancouver Convention Centre. Pavco's last annual report said the stadium was booked for about 200 events last year. The average economic impact was about $300,000 per event, Pavco estimates.
With the roof, the Crown corporation hopes that by 2013 there will be an extra 41 bookings a year, more than one-third of them from the Vancouver Whitecaps soccer team. And it expects each of those to generate an extra $1 million in spinoff benefits.
The corporation, and thus the government, is counting on attracting bigger summer events once the roof can open. (It's too often hot and uncomfortable now, apparently.)
There's certainly a chance for greater economic benefits if the right events can be added to the schedule. U2 played in GM Place this week; of the 56,000 tickets, 16,000 were sold to people from outside the province. That's a lot of hotel rooms that will be booked and restaurant meals.
But it's also true that there is no guarantee that will happen.
And people outside Vancouver - or even outside the business sectors that will benefit - have a right to wonder why they are footing the bill for a reno that benefits a couple of sports teams and a specific group of businesses.
You are paying. The government has been a little cute in announcing the project, describing its commitment as a loan to Pavco.
That's not really accurate. The Crown corporation is going to use $42 million left over from the Vancouver conference centre project. (Which, you'll recall, ended up costing $841 million, although Premier Gordon Campbell had insisted the $495-million budget was adequate. Provincial taxpayers picked up the whole bill for the overruns.)
And it hopes to raise the rest of the money by leasing land taxpayers own around the stadium site for development. If that works, it can repay the loan.
But that's still a cost to taxpayers. The people of B.C. own that land. It could be developed and the money used for health care or tax reductions or to reverse cuts in services in smaller communities.
There are other ways of funding the roof, if it is a good investment. In other places, special taxes or fees have helped ensure that the people and businesses who benefit from the stadium improvements pay the costs. There could be a tax on Lower Mainland hotel rooms earmarked for the new roof, or a surcharge on event tickets or a levy on Vancouver businesses. If the benefits are as claimed, that would be fair - certainly fairer than asking someone in Penticton to pay for Vancouver's fancy new stadium roof.
Footnote: Don't expect much political debate on this. The NDP supports the new roof, although MLA Spencer Herbert notes the cost estimate has more than doubled in the last 12 months. Politicians do seem to love fancy stadiums for sports teams.

The link between NFL fans and dog fighters

For those settling down for an evening of Monday Night Football, recommended half-time reading could be found here at the New Yorker. Alarmingly clever - and Canadian - writer Malcolm Gladwell looks at brain injuries suffered by NFL players and wonders how the league differs from the dog fighting that got Michael Vick in such trouble.

Province should head off industrial property tax battle

OK, this is about industrial property tax battles.
But it's important. Depending on what happens, homeowners could face 70-per-cent property tax increases. Arenas and community infrastructure could be lost.
And thousands of jobs are at risk.
Catalyst Paper lost the first round in its fight to avoid paying property tax bills in the four communities where it operates - Campbell River, Port Alberni, North Cowichan and Powell River.
The battle isn't over. And Catalyst is just the vanguard.
Across B.C., the big employers in towns are fighting to pay lower property taxes. In Castelgar and Kitimat they've also launched legal actions. Some are threatening to close mills or other operations.
The companies have a case. For the most part, the municipalities concede that.
In the case of Catalyst, the four municipalities have been slowly trimming their industrial tax rates, and the company's burden, over the last several years. This year, the combined tax bill is down about 11 per cent.
But the companies say they're still being gouged. Given the recession, the rising dollar and collapsing markets, they can't afford to pay, they say. Competitors in the rest of North America face much lower local tax bills, they maintain.
Catalyst proposes to pay one-quarter of its tax bill. It calculates that reflects the value of the municipal services it consumes. The argument was part of its presentation in B.C. Supreme Court.
The challenge against North Cowichan taxes was the first of the four cases to be heard. Catalyst argued the taxes were so unreasonable and unfair as to be illegal.
Justice Peter Voith didn't buy it. The corporation made a good case that the taxes were too high, he found.
But the elected municipal council had set them legally, he ruled. "These matters are properly addressed by different levels of government and not the courts," Voith wrote in his judgment.
The tax rates are a legacy of a different time. Forest companies, mines and smelters were all highly profitable and often operated in one-industry towns.
They needed a stable workforce. Rather than building an old-style company town, they opted to pay high taxes to fund the services and infrastructure that allowed them to attract workers and their families.
Now they're less profitable. The towns are more diversified and a lot of people with no connection to the company are being subsidized.
In North Cowichan, residential property taxes are among the lowest in the province because Catalyst pays so much tax.
But fixing the imbalance isn't easy. If big industry pays less, than everyone else has to pay more or the municipality has to slash services.
In North Cowichan, residential taxpayers would have faced an immediate 70-per-cent tax increase to maintain services if Catalyst had won in court.
The provincial government should have taken the lead on the issue long ago. More than three years ago, the B.C. Competition Council, chaired by former NDP premier Dan Miller, recommended a 50-per-cent cut in industrial property taxes.
The B.C. Progress Board, which advises the premier, has also identified the problem.
The government has the power to cap industrial tax rates. But that would be intrusive and politically risky.
And the government could be accused of paying the company's tax bills, subsidizing them at the expense of their competitors.
Still, a combination of the threat, along with the carrot of some transitional funding to allow municipalities to plan for higher residential and small business taxes or budget cuts, could help resolve the problem.
That's what both Catalyst and the municipalities hoped would happen.
The government has opted to stay on the sidelines.
It could let the industries and the municipalities continue the battle. But there are significant risks to jobs and investment and public services in this dispute.
The provincial government has the best chance of brokering an agreement without a long and destructive series of skirmishes between big industries and municipalities.
Footnote: The issue raises the broader question of municipalities' reliance on property taxes. It's an odd way to assess taxes. A big family with a huge income and heavy demand for services pays the same as the neighbouring couple just scraping by.

B.C. not really interested in preventing gambling crime

Sean Holman offers an extraordinary police perspective on the government's lack of interest in dealing with the crimes associated with casinos and gambling today.

"The former commander of British Columbia's now-defunct integrated illegal gaming enforcement team is questioning the provincial government's commitment to "meaningful" illegal gaming investigations. Speaking exclusively with Public Eye, Fred Pinnock also described the RCMP's senior management in British Columbia as demonstrating "willful blindness" when it comes to the connection between illegal gaming and organized crime. And he said his provincially-funded RCMP team should have been expanded - not shutdown.

Mr. Pinnock, who retired as a staff sergeant in September 2008 after 29 years with the force, acknowledged airing his concerns will make him "unpopular with some of my former colleagues."

But he felt compelled to do so - in part, because he believes his team should have been keeping tabs on what happens inside legal gaming facilities rather than just cracking down on illegal gaming outside those facilities."

Read the rest of the article at publiceyeonline.com.