Another big gift, from you to a forest company

It didn’t take Western Forest Products long to cash in on the big gift the government handed the company earlier this year.
It wasn’t really from the government. Taxpayers and Vancouver Island communities actually paid for the present. Forests Minister Rich Coleman just wrapped it up and handed it over on your behalf.
Western Forest Products has announced it plans to put 4,450 acres of great real estate on the market. The land includes waterfront property along the coast west of Victoria – the kind of real estate that will have people lining up, waving their chequebooks.
That’s just the first step. All in, Western Forest Products has 70,000 acres available for sale, much of it with good development potential. Waterfront lots adjacent to some of the land are selling at $400,000 an acre.
This time last year, the company couldn’t likely have sold a single acre. The land was part of the its Vancouver Island tree farm licence, That meant it was managed as if it was Crown land, with higher environmental and forest sustainability standards. Raw log exports were limited.
And the tree farm licence required that the land stay in forestry, so there would be trees and jobs a hundred years from now.
But in February, Coleman ordered the land removed from the tree-farm licence. The company needed help, he said. The government was willing to sacrifice the public interests protected by the tree farm licence to give a break to the shareholders.
Western Forest Products was quick to take advantage of the chance. It has just put out “for sale” signs on 4,450 acres, including big stretches of the Pacific coast between Victoria and Jordan River, a popular surfing and camping spot.
There’s a good argument that the highest-value use for the land is housing for rich retirees. Certainly that’s what’s WFP has decided.
But there are a couple of problems here. First, the people of B.C. paid a big price to have those lands included in the tree farm licences. Back in the 1950s the provincial government was keen to get companies to roll their private land holdings into their licences. The government thought that way the land would be managed for the long-term benefit of British Columbians and the future of the forest industry would be protected.
And it was willing to pay to make sure that happened. The government figured out what the companies would lose by including the land in their tree farm licences, and awarded them the equivalent value in Crown timber.
But when the current government agreed to release the land from the tree-farm licences, it didn’t ask Western Forest Products for any compensation. Coleman didn’t even ask the company to donate a portion of the land for parks.
There was no consultation with the affected communities, who were not only suddenly facing big development pressures but also a serious loss of jobs. As the forestland based is reduced, the industry has to shrink.
This is the second time the Liberal government has enriched a forest company at public expense. In 2004, Weyerhaeuser asked the government to let it take 220,000 acres out of its tree farm licences, much of it around Port Alberni. The benefits to the company would be huge – an extra $18 million to $24 million a year in extra profits, plus the ability to sell of the land for real estate. Figure a $200-million gain for the corporation.
But what about the public? The ministry prepared briefing notes on the request. The officials assumed Weyerhaeuser would pay taxpayers compensation if the land was removed.
Even with that assumption, the senior ministry staff recommended that the government say no. Communities and workers considered the tree farm agreement a “social contract” that ensured local areas benefited from the forests and that sustainable management would mean jobs for their children, they told the minister. (That concern was prescient; the change allowed more log exports, cost local jobs and has resulted in logging practices that residents say have damaged the environment.)
But the politicians ignored the advice of the ministry professionals and gave the company what it wanted.
Now Coleman has done it again.

Coming soon - for-profit social services?

Jody Paterson takes the first look at a big change in social services in B.C.
All programs to help people with disabilities find jobs and get off income assistance are now to be provided by Arizona-based Providence Service Corp., an American company with that runs for-profit operations providing governments with everything from child protection to probation services to reform schools.
It's a good business niche, the company notes, citing stats to encourage investors - more than 40 million Americans now living in poverty; almost five million adults released every year on parole; two million children needing protective care.

Coalbed methane ups ante in B.C.-Montana mining fight

The big fight between Montana and B.C. over mining in the Flathead Valley is heating up again.
And this time, since coalbed methane is involved, the battle is likely really on.
It's a mistake to dismiss the dispute. Any kind of cross-border spat can get complicated and costly in a hurry. Just look at the big fight over the proposed power plant across the U.S. border from Abbotsford. The mining battle is already starting to get high-level attention in Washington - the U.S. State Department has complained; Canadian Ambassador Michael Wilson has been defending B.C.; Premier Gordon Campbell and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer have just exchanged letters on the issue. Now the whole dispute is threatening to get bigger, with the Americans complaining about possible coalbed methane development in the same area. That's even more of a hot button in Montana, in part because of the industry's poor record in the western U.S.
The starting point for all this is a proposed coal mine in the Kootenays about 30 kilometres from the U.S. border. The B.C. government already barred the owner, Cline Mining, from developing a coal property closer to the U.S. It thinks this one is OK.
But Montana's politicians are united in opposition. The mine would be in the headwaters of the Flathead River, which forms the border of Glacier National Park.
There are lots of political angles. The loudest opponent is Max 'Blame Canada' Baucus, a long-time Democratic senator who was a hawk in the softwood lumber dispute.
For any politician, it's a great opportunity to score painless points by talking tough about a foreign country and looking all pro-environment. But the Montana politicians - backed by a pretty sophisticated environmental movement - have already started to turn the spotlight on B.C. environmental approval standards. They note, for example, that the mining operation wouldn't be allowed near the river within Montana. (They don't note that the state is encouraging coal mining and coalbed methane in other areas.) The other big advantage the Montanans have is support from within B.C. And that's going to get much stronger once more people in the province are aware of the interest in coalbed methane.
The provincial is keen on coalbed methane development and has sold more than $25 million worth of drilling rights in the last five years. So far, there are no commercial developments.
Coalbed methane is natural gas trapped in cracks in coal seams and the rocks around them.
It's a good clean fuel. But there's a catch. The cracks also often hold water, sometimes contaminate, and it has to be pumped out and disposed of as part of the process. The industry has left some big messes in its wake. Now British Petroleum wants to start drilling test wells in the Crowsnest coal field next year, an area that includes the upper Flathead. The company believes the waste water can be re-injected into the ground. The Montana politicians are skeptical, and a lot of people in the region will be too. Coalbed methane is already an issue. Shell's effort to drill test wells for coalbed methane in the Klappan Valley was stalled by a First Nations blockade this month. The company applied for an injunction, but abandoned the effort. Wisely, perhaps. As the blockade continued, eight environmental groups spent $20,000 on an ad in the European edition of the Financial Times condemning Shell's plans. The ad referred to the valley as the Sacred Headwaters, source of the Nass, Stikine and Skeena rivers. Shell was portrayed as the despoiler of one of the world's great wildernesses. It's effective stuff. BP can expect a similar reaction, except with a U.S. protest thrown in. Baucus promises ""a massive and unpleasant fight from Montana that will end badly." There is actually a reasonable case that coalbed methane can be produced safely. But the government hasn't been able to make it. And it will get tougher now that the battle has gone international.
Footnote: There's coalbed methane around much of the province. Quinsam Coal and Cornerstone Gas plan to drill test wells in Campbell River as early as this fall, hoping coal fields in the area produce methane.

Time for some honest answers on Afghanistan

If Canadians are entitled to straight talk from their government on any issue, it's the war in Afghanistan.
Instead, it feels like we are being conned, either misled or kept in the dark to suit the government's political agenda.
It's a poor way to approach such an important issue. Families are sending their loved ones off to war. They deserve clear answers from their government.
The basic question is simple: Does the government support continuing our military mission in Afghanistan once the current commitment ends in February 2009?
Getting a straight answer has proved impossible. It sounded like Defence Minister Peter MacKay was providing real information earlier this month in a television interview. He was asked if Canada should be telling NATO what our plans are - after all, the mission ends in less than 18 months.
"As far as the signal that has been sent already, our current configuration will end in February 2009," he said. "Obviously the aid work and the diplomatic effort and presence will extend well beyond that, and the Afghan compact itself goes until 2011."
Sounds pretty clear. The military mission is almost over.
But within hours, a government spokesman said MacKay hadn't meant to say anything, certainly not that NATO had been told that we intended to end the mission as scheduled. He was just trying to sound like he was saying something.
Which left Canadians in the dark about what the government believes should happen.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was a little clearer this week. He says the future of the mission is up to Parliament.
But he added that the Conservatives won't allow a debate or vote on the mission until he's convinced that the Commons will extend the war commitment, Harper says.
Which means an indefinite period of political jockeying.
That's unfair. Canadians deserve a full debate now. NATO deserves to know whether our troops will continue fighting after 2009, so it can plan.
And our troops deserve to know what their futures hold.
The Conservatives could argue that they need more time to persuade Canadians of the progress being made.
But they have had 19 months to make the case for the mission. It's now time for a debate and a decision.
Reaching a decision will be difficult, because the correct course is not obvious.
There are reasons for Canada to be at war in Afghanistan - to support the government, prevent terrorists from using the country as a safe haven and improve the lives of citizens.
But there are also reasons to question the effectiveness of the mission, the chance of success and the high cost in Canadian lives.
Recent months have been discouraging.
Canadians are fighting to regain control of areas they secured earlier this year, which the Afghan police and army were unable to hold. They are battling an insurgent campaign that poses enormous tactical challenges. The enemy can avoid confrontation, harass Canadians with IEDs and wait for the chance to reclaim the territory once the NATO forces have moved on. At the same time, the rising civilian death toll is reducing support for the NATO campaign.
Independent reports suggest Canadian aid - at least in terms of some of the major projects touted by the government - has failed to translate into change on the ground.
And the Afghan government and police remain corrupt and inefficient.
Canadians have weighed the evidence and decided our troops have done enough. A national Decima Research poll this summer found two out of three Canadians want the troops out of the fighting when this commitment ends. About 75 per cent of those surveyed did not believe our effort would produce real change in Afghanistan.
It's time for the Harper government to make its best case for a continued mission, and then listen to Canadians.
Footnote: The issue could come to a head when Parliament resumes sitting in October. Dion has said the Liberals would introduce a motion calling on the government to inform NATO that the mission would not be extended. Harper could choose to consider the vote a confidence motion, which would mean an election if the government is defeated.

A dumb and sleazy controversy on veiled voting

I can't remember a weirder, dumber and potentially more sinister political controversy than the great debate over veiled voting.
To read the papers, you would have thought Canadian democracy was making a desperate last stand. All the way over in Australia, Prime Minister Stephen Harper was outraged that Elections Canada said women who chose to wear a veil wouldn't have to show their faces before voting.
Imagine. Women in burkas, voting, in Canada.
Harper sounded angry. He "profoundly disapproved" of the decision. Chief Electoral Officer Mark Mayrand was subverting the will of Parliament. Conservative MPs leaped to the attack.
And so did Liberal leader Stephane Dion and NDP leader Jack Layton, in less overwrought fashion. Both said women should have to show their faces if they want to vote.
Except it's utter baloney. Unless the leaders pay no attention to what's going on in Parliament, they know that the Commons passed amendments to the Elections Act earlier this year.
They know that the legislation does not require voters to show photo identification at the polls.
And if voters don't have to show ID, what's the point of demanding to see their faces? Is it so election workers can see if there is dishonesty in their eyes? Or is it just unCanadian to wear a veil, and grounds for barring someone from voting?
Here's what the Election Act says, after the changes the Harper government introduced and the Commons and Senate passed this year.
Voters can establish their identity in two ways. They can show "one piece of identification issued by a Canadian government, whether federal, provincial or local, or an agency of that government, that contains a photograph of the elector and his or her name and address."
Those people would logically have to show their faces, so election workers can be sure that they match the photo.
But Parliament also decided voters could show "two pieces of identification authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer each of which establish the elector's name and at least one of which establishes the elector's address."
There's no point in demanding that women who aren't required to show photo ID lift their veils.
You can understand the public getting wound up. The politicians made it sound like Mayrand had gone rogue, creating special rules just for the most extreme - or devout - Muslim women.
But Layton, Dion and Harper, they know better. They know the law allows people to vote without providing photo ID. They know that about 80,000 people voted by mail in the last election, without showing their faces.
So, why are they pretending to be so outraged, when they made the rules?
Maybe they did a bad job, and photo ID should be mandatory to prevent voting fraud. But that's not the law the Conservatives introduced and Parliament passed. (And really, having a bunch of burka-clad women voting under fake names doesn't seem like an efficient way to rig an election.)
It's tough not to smell particularly stinky political opportunism. There are three by-elections in Quebec on Monday. They're being held as the provincial government holds hearings on "reasonable accommodations" for minorities - that is to say, Muslims. A little tough talk might win a few votes.
Even if it is based on a completely bogus issue.
There is a real issue here. Canadian society has accepted the equality of women, sometimes grudgingly.
The burka, or hijab, covering women from head to toe, undermines equality. Their husbands aren't bundled up; just the women. Their work options are limited, lives proscribed. Is it a choice - like wearing a nun's traditional habit - or coerced? That's a big difference, worth discussing. What accommodation is reasonable, for employers, schools and others. When should we care about someone else's choice of dress?
But that's not what the current controversy is about. Instead, the politicians are beating up Elections Canada and a long-time government worker for following their directions.
Unless they're wildly incompetent, they know that's true. And that's sordid.
Footnote: So, what if a burke-clad voter shows up at the polls in B.C. when we vote again in 2009? No worries. The province doesn't require photo ID, so Elections BC says it has no need to see voters' faces.

Suicide, mental illness and our neglect

All across B.C., parents sent their children off to school in the last few days, hoping things would go well, worrying about what might go wrong.
Worrying about the wrong things, mostly.
We drive our kids to school, because we fear bad people might hurt them. We support groups like MADD, figuring drunk drivers are a threat.
And of course we worry about drugs and our children.
But suicide, that's not much on our mind. For some reason, we think it's more likely that strangers will kill our children than that will choose to end their own lives.
We're wrong.
In B.C., your child is 13 times more likely to kill himself than be killed by someone else. He's more than three times as likely commit suicide as to die in an alcohol-related car crash.
And while about 250 people will die of illegal drug overdoses this year, about 400 will kill themselves.
More of those little kids starting kindergarten - or older kids starting university - will die of despair than addiction, car crashes or homicide.
But who talks with their children about mental illness and depression?
It's World Suicide Prevention Day today. That's good. But it's still easier to get people to buy a ribbon showing they disapprove of drunk driving than it is to make suicide an issue.
We just don't like to think about suicide, or mental illness; it's still shameful. Since it's shameful, it's easy to decide the people who are ill don't really deserve our help.
And when the choice is whether to replace some 40-year-old's hip or help someone who suffers from schizophrenia, mental illness usually loses. On some level, a lot of us just think those people should try harder.
Maybe that's changing. The federal government has just created the Canadian Mental Health Commission. "It costs our economy billions and our society untold grief," Prime Minister Stephen Harper said in announcing the commission.
I'm not so sure. The provincial Liberals rightly attacked the former NDP government for a mental-health plan that was a sham, lots of words but no funding.
But today, there is no funding commitment for mental-health services. The hard-pressed health authorities decide on spending, not the province. And, often, crowded ERs or surgical backlogs are bigger priorities than help for people struggling with depression.
The Health Ministry's performance plan has only one measurement dealing with mental illness - the percentage of people hospitalized who get some help in the month after they're released. It's a pretty sketchy way to measure performance in a fundamental health area.
I'm sure Health Minister George Abbott's staff will bang out a letter for him to sign about spending great new initiatives once this column runs.
But looking around Victoria, it sure doesn't seem like the mentally ill are getting more help today than they were a few years ago. There are a lot more of them on the streets.
It's not just a government problem. We're mostly alarmed by mental illness. The people are often strange. We wonder why they don't just buck up. (Although we don't think cancer patients should try a little harder to cure themselves.)
Here in Victoria, a drop-in centre that's a lifeline for people with mental illness - a place where they're accepted, have friends, a life - is closing. If it was a seniors' centre, or provided the same break for disabled kids, the media and public would be all over the issue. Not for the mentally ill.
Or look at suicides. Every 10 days in Victoria someone will kill himself. But you won't read about it, or see a report on TV. There are reasons for the media hesitancy; some studies suggest a risk of increased suicides if they are reported.
But I'd argue the media just reflect our reluctance to deal with what is, generally, just another effect of mental illness.
And with some authority. My brother killed himself. And I am sure my response, my family's response, was much different than if cancer or a car crash had killed him.
Really, it starts with us. It starts with recognizing that mental illness is fundamentally just another medical condition. And that people suffering from it deserve care and support just as much as any other people battling illness.

Nuclear power debate about to heat up

Nuclear power debate about to heat up
The big push to mine Alberta's tarsands has put nuclear power back on the political agenda in B.C.
There's not likely to be any change in the provincial government's no-nukes stance. Politically, any B.C. party that advocated nuclear power would get stomped. Pragmatically, the province has a lot of other options, from the Site C dam to wind power.
But a proposed nuclear-power plant in northwest Alberta, about 140 kms from the B.C. border, is likely to spark a new debate on the safety of the atomic energy
After all, if the government maintains the position that nuclear power is unsuitable - and too risky - for B.C., how can it quietly accept a plant not all that far away from Fort St. John and Dawson Creek?
Energy Minister Richard Neufeld inadvertently highlighted the problem, reacting to the Alberta proposal with a response that probably wasn't in the talking points provided by staff. Not my issue, Neufeld said. B.C. has no authority over development in Alberta.
Anyway, he went on, the project isn't that close to B.C.. "It's well over 100 kilometres from the border and the wind generally blows from the west," he said.
That's not exactly reassuring. The idea that something might go wrong, but it's OK because the wind would probably carry any radioactive clouds toward Saskatchewan falls short of seeming like a foolproof safety plan.
The Alberta project, with a $6-billion price tag, is still far from a sure thing. (The project would supply energy to allow extraction of oil from the tarsands, as well as other uses.)
But the scheme is likely to start a useful debate on nuclear power, and energy supplies generally. And the Alberta project will likely force the B.C. Liberals to be clearer about their reasons for banning nuclear energy.
If the reasons include safety concerns, then some people in the province's northeast will be asking why the government isn't taking a stronger role in questioning the Alberta plan. NDP leader Carole James has already said B.C. should oppose the plant.
This should be an interesting debate. Nuclear power has some drawbacks. If something does go wrong, the consequences can be bad. Opponents point to Chernobyl, where the 1986 explosion released radioactive fallout over a wide area. The disaster killed 56 people and is expected to cause 4,000 additional cancer deaths.
Chernobyl was a product of the crumbling Soviet state - poorly designed, badly built and negligently managed. But widespread use of nuclear power would risk similar incidents in other failing countries.
Still, there hasn't been a single fatality in nuclear power plants since then, despite some 430 plants around the world. A lot of people have died mining coal and producing oil and gas for thermal plants in the same period.
An immediate nuclear problem is what to do with the 20 to 30 tonnes of radioactive waste each power plant produces in a year. The material remains dangerous for thousands of years, a dangerous legacy.
While nuclear power has some big drawbacks, so do the alternatives, especially given the new focus on global warming. Coal pollutes and produces large amounts of greenhouse gasses. Oil and gas are cleaner, but expensive, and also major sources of carbon dioxide. Getting the oil, gas or coalbed methane from the ground also creates problems.
There's great potential in wind and tidal and small hydro. Conservation and greater efficiency are important.
But globally, the demand for power is projected to increase by 2.4 per cent per year. That means a doubling of existing electrical production by 2037. Without nuclear power, an awful lot of coal, gas and oil are going to be burned to keep the lights on.
The issue isn't just heating up in B.C. The U.S. has asked Canada to join a new Global Nuclear Energy Partnership to encourage nuclear development and manage the risks. The Harper government has said if it will sign on; the next meeting is less than two weeks away.
Expect lots of attention on the nuclear industry in the next year.
Footnote: The other issue waiting to hit the headlines is uranium mining in B.C. The government has banned nuclear power, but is fine with uranium mining. Neufeld says there aren't likely any worthwhile deposits, but several companies have staked claims and are raising money for exploration and development.

MLAs figure they need four times as much for housing as the disabled

Everyone knows about MLAs’ big raises and their extraordinary pension plan improvements.
But only Times Colonist columnist Les Leyne, as far as I know, has taken a look at some of the other big benefit increases in the works.
One leaps out. The three-person panel that reviewed politicians’ pay— the panellists were paid $50,000 each for three months of part-time work — also looked at the extra money MLAs get for living expenses when they have to be in Victoria.
Too low, said the panel. MLAs can now claim $150 for days they’re in Victoria on business (if they’re from here, they get $51.50 for food and incidentals). Health Minister George Abbott, who needs to spend a lot of time here or in Vancouver, claimed $19,000 last year.
The current allowance isn’t rich, but it covers a hotel room at government rates and reasonable meal expenses. Anyone who spent a lot of time in Victoria would be able to rent an apartment with that much money.
But the panel said that was too mingy. It recommended, without any explanation, that all MLAs get paid $61 a day for 75 sitting days. If the legislature goes longer, they would get more. If it sat for fewer days, they wouldn’t pay anything back. (The legislature sat for 46 days in 2006.)
And the panel recommended a housing allowance of up to $19,000 a year for MLAs who live outside the capital region and decide to rent an apartment or buy a second home.
That’s $1,583 a month for housing. Not a principal residence, but a place one person — maybe two — would use some of the time.
It’s a big jump. And I can’t help but think about the contrast between what MLAs believe they need to find a place to live and what they think the most vulnerable people in the province need.
A disabled individual — imagine someone with an illness or injury or developmental disability that makes it impossible to work, and no savings or other income — gets $375 for shelter. A couple gets $570.
About 60,000 disabled British Columbians try to live at that level.
You can have an interesting philosophical debate about what the rate should be. It doesn’t seem fair, for example, for people on income assistance to end up able to spend more on accommodation than some of the lower-income taxpayers who help support them.
But the current levels are indefensible. There is no accommodation available for $375 in much of the province. People go homeless or stay with relatives or use the already meagre allowance for food and other basics.
In Esquimalt, four low-rent buildings have just been condemned and all the tenants evicted. Some suites had bare electrical wires, leaky plumbing and roofs. The living conditions were chaotic, with reports of drunkenness and crime.
Rents in the buildings had started at $480 a month. A person on disability benefits couldn’t have afforded even a place in a building that was about to be condemned.
There’s no reason to expect MLAs to live in the same way as those on income assistance. And this not a criticism of MLAs or their dedication to the work. As a group they are extremely diligent and make personal and financial sacrifices with the goal of making their communities and the province better places.
But the gap between the $375 a month they think a disabled person needs for rent and the $1,580 they consider necessary for themselves is huge. It’s hard to see how MLAs can justify leaving others in such hopeless housing circumstances, while improving their own lot so dramatically.
The deal isn’t done yet. The commission’s report proposed MLAs provide receipts to get the housing money. The legislative committee working on the changes is also looking at making the payment a straight $1,000 a month, with no receipts needed.
Either way, the politicians will be treating themselves a lot better than they’re willing to treat the most vulnerable British Columbians.
It caps a sordid period for B.C. politicians. Raises ranging from 30 per cent for MLAs to 50 per cent for the premier; an extraordinary pension plan improvement, and likely soon, a giant jump in living expenses.
Footnote: The changes are being discussed by the legislative assembly management committee, the most secretive of MLAs’ committees. It approves the $50-million budget for the assembly, but doesn’t publish any reports or minutes or plans. Try to find information on the committee on the government website. Current members are Liberals Bill Barisoff, Mike de Jong, John Yap and Randy Hawes and New Democrats Mike Farnworth and Jenny Kwan.

YouTube leaves police facing tough questions

Two years ago, I wouldn't have been writing a column suggesting police posing as anarchists tried to provoke trouble at the North American summit in Montebello.
YouTube.com hadn't made its official debut two years ago. There was no way for someone like Nanaimo filmmaker Paul Manley to share his work with the world.
And without the evidence, most of us would have likely dismissed claims by a union leader that police, dressed us as protestors, were trying to encourage confrontation - and perhaps justify police action against demonstrators.
But YouTube exists. Manley went to the Quebec summit where Stephen Harper, George Bush and Mexican president Felipe Calderon met. He shot video of three aggressive, masked men - pretending to be protestors - clashing with other peaceful demonstrators. One is carrying a big rock. They're belligerent when told to clear off, that it was a peaceful demonstration. One shoves a demonstrator; they won't take off their masks. Then they push through the police lines, and appear to be arrested.
Weird, eh? Protestors who shove through police lines to get taken into custody?
The people at the protest had guessed the three men were police. Manley's video supported that conclusion. When the men were being "arrested," they were laying on the ground. Their boots were clearly shown, and the soles were distinctive and identical to the boots worn by the police officers kneeling beside them.
The star of the video is Dave Coles of the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers' Union. He confronts the three masked aggressors, and keeps on questioning them and insisting its a peaceful desmonstration even when he's pushed around. It's impressive.
Coles went public with the claim that police were acting as agents provocateur. The RCMP wouldn't say if the three masked men caught on video were Mounties. The Quebec provincial police said the three men definitely weren't officers from their force.
But that turned to be untrue. After two days of denials, the Quebec provincial police came clean. The three masked men pretending to be hardcore militants were undercover agents. But they weren't doing anything bad, just monitoring the protest, the force said.
It's justifiable for undercover police officers to mingle with protestors if they have reasonable cause to fear some within the group will commit crimes. Undercover officers could help head off violence.
But there wasn't a whole lot of violence at Montebello.
And in the video, the biggest problems, and source of potential conflict, were the actions of the three police officers, masked and pretending to be bad guys.
The police explanations have sounded a little desperate. One officer was carrying a rock because "extremists" had handed it to him to throw and he didn't want to blow his cover.
The option of dropping it somewhere along the way never crossed his mind.
And the Quebec police never explained why the officers were so confrontational and abusive with Coles and others.
Again, two years ago, this would probably have been the end of it. Union leader says police were trying to provoke conflict at a peaceful demonstration. Police deny it.
But today, people with a good Internet connection can watch Manley's video of the incident and make their own judgments. (It's at www.youtube.com; just search YouTube on Montebello.)
At best, viewers would likely judge the officers incompetent; at worst, they could decide police were trying to provoke a violent conflict.
It should be alarming. When people show up to protest, because they're concerned about some public issue, they should be free to exercise their rights. If they break the law, of course, they should be charged.
But the undercover police threatened protestors and created a real risk of violence.
Public Security Minister Stockwell Day has brushed off calls for an independent investigation of the affair. He seems to have forgotten the roots of his party, and the commitment to protecting the individual from the powers of the state.
Footnote: It is noteworthy that the story exists only because of an individual filmmaker, and YouTube.com, the website that lets people share videos. Manley's video has been viewed 243,000 times on YouTube and referred to in reports by every major news media in Canada. (The CBC nightly news attracts about 600,000 viewers.) The age of Citizen Journalists has arrived.

Electoral boundaries show STV can work for B.C.

I’m sticking with my slogan for the campaign to shift B.C. to a new way of electing MLAs: “STV – it couldn’t be any worse than what we’ve got now.”
The Electoral Boundaries Commission didn’t just recommend new riding boundaries when it reported last week. It also set out proposed ridings that would be used under the single-transferable vote proportional representation system.
Wait. Don’t quit reading. This is important, and pretty interesting.
You remember STV. The Citizens’ Commission on Electoral Reform — Premier Gordon Campbell’s very fine creation — recommended a shift to that system. It went to referendum in 2005 and 58 per cent of voters supported the change — just shy of the 60 per cent needed.
So Campbell said there would be a repeat referendum along with the provincial election in 2009. This time, proposed ridings would be set out so people could make a more informed decision.
That’s what the commission provided. And all in all, despite some problems, the proposed ridings confirm that the STV system would be an improvement.
Under the system there would be fewer, larger ridings, with two to six MLAs, depending on the population.
On election day, you wouldn’t just mark an ‘X’ beside your choice. You would rank as many candidates as you liked, in order of preference. The results reflect voters’ rankings. (The tallying method is explained well at www.gov.bc.ca/referendum_info.)
The system’s benefits include a legislature that better reflects the wishes of voters. It’s likely, for example, that the 162,000 British Columbians who voted Green – 9.2 per cent of the total – would have ended up with members of the party representing them under the STV system.
The ranking system means voters can mix their choices – ranking Liberals first and second, and a Green candidate they admire third, for example.
And it means members of the same party have to compete with each other for support.
That’s important. The important contest in many ridings now is the battle for the nomination, not the election itself. And MLAs – especially in government – tend to worry as much about staying on the good side of the party as they do advocating for their ridings. That would change under STV.
But there’s a snag. The greatest benefits from the system come when there are four or five MLAs in a riding.
But that is impractical in some areas of B.C. To have the population needed to justify even three MLAs, the ridings would have to be enormous.
So there are two ridings proposed in the north – Northeast and Northwest – that would have only two MLAs each. There are several ridings with three MLAs — the Kootenays become one large riding with three representatives.
The benefits of the system are reduced with two-person ridings, and there are some risks. In a riding with four or five seats, it’s likely candidates will emerge who target individual communities within the riding to win support.
But in a two-candidate riding, there’s a risk some areas might be ignored. It’s a long way from Tumbler Ridge to Fort Nelson.
Still, tally the pros and cons and the system looks like a major step forward. And the Electoral Boundaries Commission established that across most of the province, its possible to set out ridings that make sense and allow three or more MLAs to be elected from a riding.
Here in the Capital Region, for example, the commission proposes a six-member riding that pretty much conforms to the regional district boundaries. It should offer a great opportunity for voters’ diverse interests and priorities to be reflected in the legislature. They will be able to support the four best Liberals, if they want to see the government stay in power, but perhaps also a New Democrat who understands their local issues and a Green candidate to advance environmental issues.
The STV system isn’t perfect. But it’s better than what we have now, and it’s the only chance for change.
Footnote: The referendum will be held in May 2009. If the change is approved, it would take effect for the 2013 election. Expect passionate campaigns for and against as the date of the vote comes closer.

New ridings painful for rural B.C., but fair

There’s going to be some pained shouts from the north and Interior, but B.C.’s Electoral Boundaries Commission has done a pretty good job of redrawing the map of ridings around the province.
The commission has set out two reworked sets of ridings, one for the current system and one for a new proportional representation electoral process.
The basic news is that the commission proposes creating five new ridings - four in the Lower Mainland and one in the Okanagan – to reflect the population growth there.
Instead of simply increasing the legislature by five seats, the commission recommended reducing the number of seats in rural B.C. by three.
The Caiboo-Thompson goes from five seats to four; the Kootenays from four to three; the north from eight to seven ridings.
The end result is that the legislature goes from 79 to 81 MLAs and urban areas get more political clout.
The three commissioners faced a tough task. Their principal mandate was to look at the province's changing population and come up with riding boundaries that would ensure that each MLA would represent about the same number of people.
Sounds easy. Figure out how many MLAs you want, divide that number into the total number of eligible voters and come up with ridings with have roughly that number of people, ones that make sense, where people share a set of interests.
But it's not that simple. Our system, no matter how it's tweaked, is messy. Right now, Lorne Mayencourt represents 75,000 people in Vancouver-Burrard; Gary Coons represents 28,000 people in Prince Rupert and in the North Coast riding. That hardly seems fair.
But Mayencourt's riding is nine square kilometres. In a day, he can cover every corner - walking. Coon's riding is 66,000 square kilometres. It can take three days to visit one community.
There's no real arguing against the commission's recommendations, based on the underlying assumption that ridings should all include roughly the same number of people. On that basis, the Lower Mainland should have 75 per cent of the seats.
And it all makes sense, when you're drawing lines on a map.
But for those regions seeing fewer MLAs, the result is discouraging. The candidates are a little less interested in your concerns. It's farther to drive to the constituency office for a meeting.
When a vote comes up in the legislature, there are fewer people knowledgeable about the local issues. (OK, that is a little idealistic. It often seems that MLAs spend more time promoting their party and leader than their constituents’ interests.)
And, broadly, there's a big political shift under way. In the 1986 election, there were 69 ridings. The Lower Mainland had 45 per cent of the seats, and back then the Fraser Valley barely counted as urban.
The legislature - and the Socred cabinet - was dominated by MLAs from rural and resource communities.
If the commission's recommendations are accepted, Lower Mainland MLAs will dominate the new legislature. Vancouver and its sprawl will have 57 per cent of the seats in the house.
For the first time in the province's history, a party will be able to form government without electing a single MLA from outside the Lower Mainland.
You can understand how that will worry people in the rest of B.C., especially because they feel they have been forgotten for much of the last six years by the Liberal government. Even now, with the economy doing well across the province, many rural communities fear not enough is being done to prepare for the crash when the pine-beetle-damaged wood runs out.
But there’s no avoiding the reality that our system is based on representation by population, and ridings need to be roughly comparable. Given that, the commission did a good job of redrawing the map.
It also took some useful steps to make ridings more appropriate, bringing like communities into the same riding to ensure a set of common interests and concerns. That will help voters, and MLAs.
Footnote: The commission will now listen to submissions before submitting a final report. Expect minor tweaking at most. Then the politicians have to make the final decision, and will face pressure to add a couple of seats in rural areas.
The report also set out proposed ridings for the single-transferable-vote system of proportional representation. That’s a different column.

Premiers' contribute mostly hot air to climate change

Climate change and energy were supposed to be the big issues when the premiers got together in Moncton.
And given all the enthusiastic talk about the importance of the global-warming issue to life on Earth, you might have expected them to do something.
But no. After two days, the best the premiers could do was agree to start keeping track of greenhouse gas emissions in a consistent way.
Weird, really. All this time they've been talking earnestly about reducing emissions by sector and setting goals and trading carbon credits.
And yet they don't even really know how much greenhouse gases are being produced by each province now, or how.
The premiers have been trying to stake out a bigger place in government. Since 2003, they've referred to themselves as the Council of the Federation, a name that's supposed to suggest - I'm not really sure what, actually. But the idea is the council speaks with some authority.
In real life, the council mostly mumbles. Like this time. Premier Gordon Campbell - along with his counterparts from Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba - were keen emission caps and a trading system. If a B.C. industry cut its emissions below the agreed-on level, it could sell the right to produce those emissions to some company in Nova Scotia that couldn't afford to install emission-reduction technology. The big benefit is that emissions come to have a cost. There is an incentive, beyond the vague notion of doing good or winning goodwill, for companies to cut emissions.
But Alberta, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan were opposed. They're afraid caps would hurt their energy industry. There was no agreement, which meant the no-caps side won. The premiers also talked about bringing in tough automobile emission standards to match the coming Californian regulations. Eventually, 12 of the 13 supported the idea.
But Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty nixed that proposal. The cost of meeting the California standards could add $2,000 to the price of a car. Fewer car sales would hurt Ontario's automotive industry. So the emissions didn't matter so much.
Individual provinces might still try to adopt the standards, but they'll have a tough time if automakers claim it's not worth producing special vehicles for a small market.
It wasn't a total bust. The premiers promised to produce an additional 25,000 megawatts of renewable energy by 2020 - figure about the equivalent of the production of 10 Revelstoke dams. They will include climate change in school curricula.
And the move to measure and report emissions is useful; the first step toward some sort of trading system.
"I'm not suggesting this is Earth shattering," said B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell. Right. "We've made some progress, though." Not much, really.
It wouldn't really be a premier's meeting without some grumbling about the federal government. Saskatchewan and Newfoundland are still angry because they say Stephen Harper broke his promise to exclude oil and gas revenues from the equalization formula. (Short verdict - they're right, Harper broke the promise, but it was a bad promise and bad policy.)
Some of the premiers were also fretting about the Conservative government might do.
Harper has said the government should be playing a smaller role in creating and supporting national social programs. The federal government should not be insisting on health-care standards or funding child-care programs, the argument goes. Those are areas of provincial jurisdiction, and the federal government should butt out.
The approach reflects Harper's view that the federal government should be smaller.
And it will score political points in Quebec. Premier Jean Charest has said he wants to start talks about a reduced role for the federal government. But other premiers are edgy, because they believe federal programs are needed to ensure equal standards and improving programs and they fear Ottawa government will cut back funding.
Still, based on the premiers' inability to make progress on climate change - supposedly a national priority - the prime minister doesn't have much to worry about from the council of the federation, grand name or not.

The public wants photo radar - why is Campbell saying no

It's getting harder and harder to figure out Premier Gordon Campbell's opposition to photo radar.
The statistics suggest the Liberals' decision to cancel photo radar in 2001 has cost about 50 lives a year and thousands of injuries. Tragedies for the individuals and their families; a waste of human potential; and a major health-care cost.
Campbell is seen as a pretty pragmatic politician - look at the big swings on First Nations and climate change. You'd expect him to accept the reality that photo radar works. Crashes and deaths are both reduced.
I attributed the reluctance to an unwillingness to admit a mistake and the fear of a public backlash.
But last month Ipsos-Reid asked British Columbians how they felt about photo radar and red-light cameras.
The support was overwhelming for both, surprising even for those - like me - who figured the public recognized the common-sense benefits of deterring speeding drivers.
The poll, done for the Canada Safety Council, asked people across Canada about the devices.
Almost 90 per cent of British Columbians, and 84 per cent of Canadians, supported the use of photo radar in school zones.
Almost three out of four British Columbians supported the use of photo radar on highways, compared with 69 per cent of Canadians. And 84 per cent of British Columbians supported red-light cameras.
So there's no risk of a real political problem. In fact, it seems the public would welcome a measure that made life safer for their families.
It all makes the refusal to act baffling.
The evidence is overwhelming that photo radar works.
Before B.C. introduced photo radar in 1996, an average of 510 people had died annually in the five preceding years.
For the almost six years photo radar was in operation, the average annual death rate was 412 - almost 100 fewer lives lost per year to crashes.
The Liberals acted on their campaign promise and killed photo radar in 2001. And in the next three years, the average number of deaths increased to 449, an average 37 additional deaths per year.
A study done on B.C.'s first year of photo radar found "a dramatic reduction of speed" at deployment sites. "The analysis found a 25-per-cent reduction in daytime unsafe-speed-related collisions, an 11-per-cent reduction in daytime traffic collision victims carried by ambulances and a 17-per-cent reduction in daytime traffic collision fatalities," the study reported.
Almost 20 per cent fewer deaths.
The people who object to the cameras can come up with explanations.
But a major Australian review last year analyzed data from 26 photo radar studies done around the world. The number of crashes was reduced by between 14 per cent and 72 per cent once photo radar was installed, it reported.
Fatalities were reduced by an even more dramatic 40 to 46 per cent - cut almost in half.
Photo radar - or speed cameras, as they're called now - isn't a cure-all. It would be more effective to have increased policing. The survey found that 42 per cent of Canadians thought there should be more traffic enforcement - roadside checks, radar, speed traps and the general visibility of police. Only seven per cent thought there was too much enforcement.
But police officers are expensive. Speed cameras, done right, are cheap. The old B.C. system used vans. Other jurisdictions set up permanent camera boxes in appropriate locations - school zones, stretches of highway with a high rate of crashes. They rotate the actual cameras between sites.
So for very little money, speeds are reduced in dangerous areas, there are fewer crashes and lives are saved.
Sometimes people would get tickets they don't deserve, because they loaned their cars to someone. But most of us would want to know if someone - a child, perhaps - was driving our vehicle at high speed.
The public backs photo radar. It saves lives, reduces health-care costs and protects families.
How long can the government keep saying no?
Footnote: The government hasn't come up with any reason for its position. Solicitor General John Les has even turned down a request for speed cameras on the deadly Patullo Bridge. The RCMP want them; they say enforcement is too dangerous. ICBC and Surrey council say the cameras are needed to save lives.
But the government won't budge.

James and the politics of leadership

NDP leader Carole James took quite a little beating for her muddled responses to the treaty ratification by the Tsawwassen First Nation.
Mostly deserved, I'd say. James was attempting to explain why the party hadn't taken any position on the treaty in the months leading up to the vote.
It was out of respect, she said. The choice to accept the deal - or not - was up to the First Nation.
James said she decided the party's position should be kept secret to avoid any appearance of telling the Tsawwassen what to do.
So how does the party feel about the coming Maa-Nulth treaty vote, James was asked.
We hope it passes, she said. (It did.)
Which raised the obvious question: Why wasn't James staying silent on that treaty ratification vote out of respect, as well?
Right. I should have, said a stumbling James. Oops.
Not a great leadership moment.
And confirmation, I'd say, of suspicions that the New Democrats' silence on the Tsawwassen deal was based more on a desire to avoid airing their public divisions than on any principle.
The party is pro-treaty. An NDP government fought for the Nisga'a treaty, while Gordon Campbell staged a long battle against the deal, trying to stall approval in the legislature and challenging it in court.
But the NDP has also taken the Agricultural Land Reserve as a sacred cause.
The Tsawwassen treaty includes a transfer of land to the band. Some of it was in the reserve, but it will be removed before it is handed over to the First Nation.
Supporting the deal would have been tough for the ALR purists within the party and the caucus. There might have been internal fighting.
And James' contradictory responses on the two treaties suggest that avoiding a public squabble was a large part of the NDP's decision to stay silent on the Tsawwassen deal.
The whole affair raised once again that perhaps James isn't tough enough for the job. The suggestion, I suppose, is that she should have bludgeoned the party into line - or at least public silence - and taken a position on the treaty.
There's not much evidence for the claim. James' approval ratings are still better than the public marks for Premier Gordon Campbell.
The last Ipsos-Reid poll, in June, found 54 per cent of those surveyed approved of the job she was doing. Campbell won positive ratings from 49 per cent of those surveyed.
And James has generally been gaining ground. Back in March 2005 a similar poll found her approval rating at 50 per cent. Some voters who were undecided then have been won over.
It might be that the pundit types put too much value on toughness.
It seems to be generally considered a good thing when leaders are decisive, even authoritarian. Hesitation is worse than being confidently wrong.
Canadians don't cut and run, says Prime Minister Stephen Harper, so the war in Afghanistan continues no matter what's happening on the ground. But certainty can be dangerous. The leader who insists he alone knows the right course can - with great and stylish decisiveness - lead his followers over a cliff. (Or into Iraq.)
Earlier this year The New Yorker profiled rising U.S. political star and presidential candidate Barack Obama. One of the knocks against Obama is that he's too inclined to compromise and consensus. (The article was titled The Conciliator.)
But Obama said he simply considers that sensible. He has strong views, he said, but he also recognizes that he doesn't have a monopoly on wisdom. If others feel strongly about an issue, it's smart to heed their views.
There's a risk of drift and indecision in the approach.
But we've run into a lot of problems created by leaders who are convinced they have all the answers.
Maybe it's time to celebrate a little compromise and conciliation.
Footnote: What's Campbell's approach? Tough to tell from the outside. But the government's big initiatives - the Conversation on Health, the New Relationship with First Nations, forest policy changes and now the new enthusiasm for fighting global warming - have all been launched from the premier's office. And the role of backbench MLAs in shaping policy through caucus committees has been sharply cut back since the 2005 election.

Maybe Hillbilly Heroin is a good thing

Apparently prescription drugs are bumping heroin off some addicts' shopping lists in Victoria these days.
Which seems like a good thing, one that points to a solution to at least some of the drug problems causing our communities so much grief. The Times Colonist reported "the evolution of drug use in Victoria" is under way. Dealers are shifting from heroin to prescription drugs that have similar effects - Dilaudid, OxyContin and morphine variants. OxyContin has kind of a buzz going. It's apparently swept through small-town and rural America and made inroads in Atlantic Canada. The prescription drug even has a media handle - "hillbilly heroin." (Of course, we in the media don't have a good record in reporting on drugs; we tend to get overly excited about each new drug that comes along.)
The article suggested the shift marked a "troublesome trend" in drug use. I can't see much troublesome about the change. Being addicted - to prescription drugs, heroin, cocaine or alcohol - is terrible.
And some substances are worse than others. Cocaine addicts seem particularly likely to have a tough ride; alcoholics have the benefit of easy access and a certain social tolerance. But any addiction is bad news. Still, oxycontin or heroin - what's the difference? Some argue prescription heroin substitutes might add to addiction problems if they're more readily available than heroin. Getting phony prescriptions and reselling the drugs might be easier than importing heroin, they suggest. But there never seems to be any problem meeting the demand for heroin. The biggest busts and record-breaking seizures make absolutely no difference in supply.
Basically, it seems that the new street drugs are appealing because they're a safe, cost-effective alternative to heroin. How is that a bad thing?
When people buy heroin, or cocaine or meth, they can't tell what they're getting.
When they buy a prescription drug, they often can check the tablet or capsule before they grind it up. The drug has been made in a pharmaceutical company's manufacturing centre, not some basement. That means addicts have a reduced risk of taking bad drugs and dying, or ending up in hospital. Surely that's a good thing.
The cost of feeding a prescription drug addiction is about the same as being on heroin. Markets work that way. If prescription drugs give the same effects as heroin, then they'll command pretty much the same price. But the article raised an interesting possibility. On the street, it said, the prescription pills sell for $5 to $20 each. An addict would typically use $40 or $50 worth at a time, based on street prices. Consider the process involved. Someone persuades a doctor he has terrible pain and gets a prescription for a morphine-like drug. He sells the pills to a dealer, who sets out to resell them on the street. A buyer - an addict - would need $40 to make the buy. If he's doing crimes to support his habit, that means perhaps three cars broken into to get stuff to sell.
Which would, of course, cost each of the owners $500 for a new lock or window. So the addict gets drugs. Dealers and gangs make money supplying them. Property crimes soar. Police are kept busy.
Instead, why not write the addict a prescription, and even provide free drugs? The real price for the bills, prescribed, is $8, not $40. Providing the drugs deals a big blow to the criminals making profits in the drug trade. The addict wouldn't break into those three cars. Perhaps, given freedom from the daily scramble for drug money, he might even begin to get a grip. It's worked that way in other jurisdictions. Switzerland conducted an experiment in which 1,100 addicts received free heroin. During the test there was a massive reduction in criminal activity by the drug users and an increase in employment and not one overdose death.
And more than 80 people quit drugs while using legal heroin. So why aren't we just writing prescriptions for at least some addicts?
Footnote: There are practical issues. Drugs shouldn't be too readily available, as difficulty deters at least some new users. But making life difficult for addicts serves no purpose. Their lives are worse, the entire community suffers through crime, policing costs, health care pressures and our sense of safety is eroded. What is the point?

So how much did the panelists who recommended giant raises for MLAs get paid?

Sean Holman has the answer at publiceyeonline.com. Look for the item headed "Reviewing the reviewers."

RCMP complaints process a travesty

As questions mounted about the death of Ian Bush, the RCMP repeatedly noted that the shooting would be investigated by the RCMP Commission for Public Complaints.
What they didn't say was that the top Mounties get to rewrite the commission's reports before they're made public.
And they routinely do, clearing officers accused of wrongdoing.
The Commission for Public Complaints issued 48 interim reports in its last fiscal year, which ended March 31.
The commission, after reviewing the evidence, issued 184 "findings." Half of them - 92 - were critical of the actions of the RCMP officers involved.
But the RCMP commissioner gets to go through the reports before they're released. During that 12-month period, the commissioners - first Giuliano Zaccardelli, then Beverley Busson - regularly rewrote reports. They decided witnesses judged credible by the commission should not be believed. They changed findings of fact and introduced new evidence.
And they over-ruled and rewrote 50 per cent of the commission's "adverse findings" against the actions of officers.
The situation is so outrageous it's like something out of a political satire. If something goes wrong - from a small complaint to a shooting - here's what happens. The RCMP investigates the actions of its officers. The investigators might forward a report to Crown prosecutors, who would use it to decide if charges are warranted.
If someone was unhappy with the results of this process, they could ask the RCMP Commission for Public Complaints to review the case. But the commission relies largely on the investigation by the RCMP.
And the top Mountie can and does rewrite the commission's reports to remove criticisms of officers or the force.
This has nothing to do with the general conduct of RCMP officers. Based on my limited experience as a police reporter - all right, very limited - they routinely do a tough job with remarkable good judgment.
But not always. Not invariably, 100 per cent of the time, like some saintly brigade. These are people like you and I, who chose a challenging line of work.
We give police officers great powers - from carrying guns to stopping people they suspect of wrongdoing. And most of us, I think, when we hear someone complain about being mistreated by police, tend to give the officer the benefit of the doubt. We've seen the kind of people they have to deal with, drunk and stupid and contrary.
That's exactly why there has to be accountability and independent oversight. When something does go wrong, a victim needs to know someone will look at his complaints with an open mind. Someone who isn't on the side of the police, or against them. Someone just interested in the truth and law.
Instead, complaints are investigated by RCMP officers. The information goes to the commission for public complaints. And then the head of the RCMP can rewrite any recommendations he doesn't like.
It's a deeply flawed process. The head of the RCMP has a natural desire to protect fellow officers. And too many bad reports might cost him his job.
The Commission for Public Complaints Against the RCMP is trying to improve things. It announced this month, in the aftermath of the Ian Bush shooting, a test program that will see its staff observe investigations into serious cases in B.C.
Commission chair Paul Kennedy says more is needed. The government has to pass legislation that allows real independent oversight. (Justice Dennis O'Connors investigation into the Arar case produced the same recommendation.)
The federal government's failure to deal with the issue is particularly unfair to British Columbians. The province has an independent Police Complaint Commissioner in charge of investigating public complaints.
But the RCMP won't accept the commissioner's oversight. Since most communities are policed by the RCMP, about 75 per cent of British Columbians don't have access to an adequate complaints process.
It's time the federal government acted on the urgent need to bring adequate oversight to the RCMP
Footonote: An independent review released earlier this year found significant problems in the provincial police complaints' review process. The report's author, former appeal court justice Josiah Wood, also advocates bringing the RCMP under the authority of the province's complaints commissioner.

The premier and that gift to private liquor stores

It's nice to know the government was worried about how it would look, taking some $25 million a year out of taxpayers' pockets and handing it to private liquor store owners.
But it would be better still to know why the Liberals decided to make such a generous gift to a handful of businesses, one that will keep on giving.
I wrote about the gift back in January. The government had quietly decided to cut the wholesale prices it charged private liquor stores. It reduced prices by about five per cent, across the board.
Great news for the companies. If you can get a supplier to cut your costs, then your profits jump.
The biggest company quickly wrote investors and said the government's decision would mean a 10-per-cent jump in pre-tax profits.
Not so good for taxpayers. The price cut reduces the amount of money coming into the Liquor Distribution Branch. The branch's profits flow back to the government, to pay for health care or reduce the debt. The money was significant - up to $31 million a year.
But why would the government cut prices? It doesn't have any competition - the Liquor Distribution Branch is the only legal supplier.
And the branch has already cut prices for the stores twice since the Liberals opened the door for expanded private liquor sales.
There is no financial crisis in the liquor business. In fact, stores are still opening and the industry leaders have big plans.
It's still a mystery why the government gave the gift.
But thanks to Sean Holman at www.publiceyeonline.com, the how of the deal is becoming clearer. (The site is mandatory reading for anyone interested in politics and policy in B.C.)
Holman filed freedom of information requests to find out what happened.
It turns out Solicitor General John Les announced the gift to private liquor stores at the B.C. Hospitality Industry Conference Exposition. There was never a news release or public notification.
Les noted the government had already "taken a number of steps" to help private liquor stores.
And then he announced that government was prepared to give up more revenue to help the private liquor stores. "This increase in the discount will help to further ensure your long-term viability in the marketplace," Les told the cheering liquor store owners.
Why the government is willing to pony up your money to ensure the success of these businesses remains unclear.
But don't blame Les for the giveaway. He was watching out for your money, or at least that's how the industry saw it. The head of their association complained in late 2005 that Les had "no appetite" for meeting the industry's demands for bigger profits.
Perhaps what matters is who the industry complained to.
Holman reports the criticism of Les came in a "Dear Gordon" letter to the premier. Former solicitor general Rich Coleman had promised the price break, they said, but Les wasn't going along.
And a year later, the industry had its $25 million price break.
The industry's letter to the premier was interesting. Alliance of Beverage Licensees president David Crown said Coleman had promised to help the private liquor.
And Crown said the companies were waiting too long "to gain the market share that was promised us."
Whoa. Who promised the investors in private liquor stores a guaranteed share of the market? Why, and when?
Those questions still aren't answered.
The owners' association urged members to tell anyone who asked that the deal would mean lower consumer prices.
But the Liquor Barn group of stores had already told its investors that the change would bring a big boost in profits. And people who shop in private liquor stores don't report any big round of discounting.
The bottom line is that the government handed up to $30 million a year in revenue it had been receiving to a group of companies. That's money that could have paid for additional surgeries, or been returned to taxpayers.
Instead, it's boosting profits for a few private businesses.
Footnote: The break for private liquor stores will hit the government's Liquor Distribution Branch's bottom-line this year. The Crown corporation - despite a booming economy - is forecasting a drop in profits for the 2007-8 fiscal year.

Taylor's big surplus cost the public services

Finance Minister Carole Taylor was trying too hard, I'd say. The big-time spin on this year's public accounts suggested the government is getting worried about what you think about the recurring mega-surpluses.
Sure, big surpluses are better than big deficits. But I've been a corporate guy, responsible for a few businesses.
And if a manager who reported to me kept smashing his budget numbers year after year, I'd start to wonder if he was being dishonest when he submitted his plan.
The government smashed its budget again this year. Taylor has released the public accounts for the fiscal year ending March 31 - the final accounting - and revealed that the government had a $4.1-billion surplus.
The plan at the beginning of the year called for a $600-million surplus. But the plan underestimated revenues by about $3.1 billion. Spending was $1 billion lower than the worst case forecast.
That's no surprise. Since the Liberals were elected, the government has posted very large surpluses at year-end, consistently low-balling revenue forecasts.
Here's the problem. If the government had prepared an accurate forecast - within a conservative but reasonable margin of error - than there would have been a chance for the public and the MLAs who represent them to talk about priorities.
Good news, the government could have said. It looks like, given the best forecasts, we'll finish the year having taken in $4.1 billion more than we'll spend. What should we do with the money?
That's enough for a $1,000 cut in the taxes each British Columbians pays. Or to eliminate the wait for surgery in the province, or increase welfare rates or improve home care for seniors. Or to pay down the province's already modest debt.
The government's inaccurate forecasts steal the chance for that kind of debate. By the time the surplus is revealed, the only option legally left is to plunk it down on the debt.
So far, the government has been mostly upfront about the whole business.
But not this year. Taylor said the surplus was used to pay for hospitals, schools and roads. "Fortunately, we were able to use the larger-than-forecast surplus to both pay for these projects and pay down debt by $1 billion," she said in a press release.
That's a major tweak to reality. None of those projects was started because of the surplus. None of them is directly paid for with the extra money the government collected.
And they were planned and would have gone ahead without the surplus. (Sorry kids, we budgeted too well. No school for you.)
There is just no $3.1 billion allocated to infrastructure and $1 billion to pay down the debt.
The whole $4.1 billion is going to pay down debt.
Anytime the government communications' types ramp up the spin cycle that much - and enlist Taylor to front the effort - you should be warned something is going on.
There isn't anything dramatically wrong with paying down debt. I hate debt; it always seems to take away your freedom. That's another column.
But B.C. doesn't have a debt problem. Next to debt-free Alberta, B.C. has the lowest debt per capita. That, and prudent government, is why the province has such a good credit rating.
That means there was a real choice - tax cuts, or help for people or paying down the debt.
Spending decisions would of course have to be made carefully. It would be foolish to launch programs that require long-term commitments based on a large surplus one year. (Although big surpluses are the norm for this government.)
But even the most cautious approach would have allowed major improvements in the lives of British Columbians or significant tax cuts for individuals or businesses.
When the legislature finance committee consulted British Columbians on the budget, they said improving services should be the priority.
The government's bad forecasting allowed it to ignore the priorities of British Columbians.
Footnote: The legislative committee hearings are a legally mandated part of the budget process. The committee received 8,000 submissions which overwhelmingly called for improved services - faster access to health care, efforts to deal with mental-health and addiction issues, more affordable housing, enhanced education and so on. Instead, the government plunked $4.1 billion down on the debt.

RCMP must accept real accountability

The Ian Bush case should surely convince politicians that it's time to bring accountability to the RCMP.
Bush was 22 when he was arrested for drinking a beer outside the Houston arena before a hockey game. He gave false name and was taken into custody. Thirty minutes later he was dead, shot in the back of the head by an inexperienced officer. They were the only two people in the detachment when he died.
The night of the shooting, RCMP officers didn't ask Const. Paul Koester what happened; they supported him, told him it wasn't his fault and advised him to get a lawyer. Officers testified at the just-concluded inquest that they considered Koester a victim. Ambulance attendants were initially denied access to the detachment. Bush's body was left there for 24 hours, allowing decomposition that made the eventual autopsy more difficult.
RCMP officers attended the autopsy and offered theories about what might have happened to the pathologist. He forgot to examine a visible bruise on Bush's thigh.
Koester, didn't provide a statement on what happened until 18 days after the shooting. Then, it was a written statement prepared with the help of a lawyer. He shredded his original handwritten notes after the RCMP investigators said they didn't want to see them.
And RCMP investigators didn't interview him until three months after the shooting. Then, they asked only the questions that they had provided to Koester's lawyers two days in advance of the meeting
No one in Canada - including police officers - has to answer police questions. But if the shooter had been anyone other than a fellow Mountie, would investigators really have patiently waited three months for the first interview? Would they have missed the chance to interview a person involved in a shooting that first night?
Most people expect RCMP officers to have loyalty to the force and fellow Mounties. That's expected. It also makes it essential that they not be in charge of investigating possible wrongdoing by fellow officers.
In this case, the RCMP investigators accepted Koestler's eventual statement that Bush attacked him. He was kneeling, the officer said, with Bush choking him from behind. He feared for his life pulled his gun, reached around behind his back and shot Bush in the back of the head.
But at the inquest, RCMP investigators couldn't demonstrate how that was physically possible. One of Canada's leading blood-splatter experts testified the shooting could not have happened in the way the RCMP claimed.
No one except Koester knows what happened that night. But most people would conclude that the RCMP did not conduct a credible investigation. Most people would certainly believe that things would have been handled differently if they had shot an intruder.
The RCMP had pointed to the coroner's inquest as an independent. But the Coroners Service took an extremely narrow view of its role. The coroner barred evidence on the RCMP investigation of Bush's death and ordered the jury not to bring in any recommendations dealing with the issue.
The RCMP public complaints commissioner will now review the shooting. But the review won't be public and it will be based on the evidence prepared by the RCMP investigators.
The case isn't some oddity. There have been other deaths in B.C. in the last few years that have cried out for an independent investigation.
The solution is clear. Ideally, have a specialized unit investigate all such deaths and other serious cases involving police; failing that, at least require an outside police force to conduct investigations into shootings involving an RCMP officer.
It's hardly threatening. But the RCMP is opposed to any outside accountability. Federal Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day is dodging the issue. Provincial politicians have no stomach for it.
We ask a lot of police and give them great power. But we also have every right to expect them to be properly accountable for their actions.
Footnote: Const. John Ward of the B.C. media section conveyed The RCMP attitude to public oversight. When Gary Mason of the Globe and Mail suggested the public had an interest in knowing RCMP policies on handling prisoners like Bush, Ward was clear: "The public doesn't have a right to know anything," he said.

Uranium mine proposals put Liberals in hot seat

The problem for nuclear power - and by extension uranium mining - is that almost everybody has seen some disaster movie about a meltdown that threatens life on Earth as we know it.
The few who have missed those films have probably watched Homer Simpson's less-than-diligent job performance in Springfield's version of the Three Mile Island generating plant.
Now the problems are heading toward the Liberal government, as companies keep talking enthusiastically about opening uranium mines in the province.
Worse, for the Liberals, the big interest is in a property about 50 kilometres southeast of Kelowna.
You might - perhaps - be able to get local support in the north for a uranium mine; there's not a chance in the Okanagan or the southern interior.
The Liberals haven't figured out what to do. The government has, with some success, worked hard at encouraging exploration and mining in the province.
Blocking a uranium mine would be taken as a negative sign by the industry.
But there are a whole lot of votes to be lost in approving a uranium mine. Neighbours would be unhappy. And so would a lot of people across the province with concerns about the safety of nuclear energy.
The argument that nuclear power, with no direct greenhouse-gas emissions, is a sound response to the issue of climate change hasn't yet won the day.
It's still hard to see how serious the mine proposals are. But the question is looking more real.
The focus is on the Blizzard uranium claim near Beaverdell, south of Kelowna. It's already part of B.C.'s mining history. In 1980, a consortium that included Ontario Hydro announced plans to develop a uranium mine there. The opposition was fierce and then-premier Bill Bennett introduced a seven-year moratorium, which lapsed 20 years ago.
Now uranium is hot. Ontario is committed to new nuclear power plants and China plans a massive expansion.
Around the world, nuclear is being seen as both green and increasingly affordable as oil and gas prices rise. Last summer, two companies bought the Blizzard claim and announced they would revive the mine plan.
Last month, a corporate-share shuffle transferred ownership to Boss Power Inc., formerly known as Boss Gold International. The company says the claim has real potential as a uranium mine.
It's hard to know how seriously to take any of this. Junior mining companies are known more for their enthusiasm than the successful completion of projects.
Still, the more the company talks up the mine, the more problems for the government.
Kevin Krueger is the junior minister for mines, named to cabinet when Bill Bennett resigned after sending a cranky and thin-skinned e-mail to a constituent.
It's the Kamloops MLAs first real moment in the spotlight, and he's understandably having trouble dancing the required two-step.
The Liberals don't want the uranium mine to go ahead, but they also don't want to irritate the mining industry by doing anything about it.
So Krueger confirms the government doesn't have any special policy on uranium mines. Companies can apply just as if they wanted to dig up coal or copper.
They'll need the same environmental approvals, but that might not be much of a hurdle.
But at the same time, he told The Globe and Mail that mining companies should be aware that there's strong public opposition in the province.
"People fear it, and that's a reality in B.C.," he said. "Whatever assurances are passed along to them, people either don't believe it or they say they're opposed regardless, saying we don't need it, we don't want it, and we don't want you to allow it."
Which sounds a little like a warning that while there's no ban now, there might be - after shareholders had invested, companies had spent time and money and the government had taken criticism for allowing the mines to move forward.
The project might just fade away. If it doesn't, the politics should be way more complicated than actually developing a mine.
Footnote: Last summer, the concern was over uranium exploration near Clearwater, closer to Krueger's base. Canada is already one of the world's top two uranium producers and Saskatchewan is home to the largest mine in the world.

The battle for a sacred golf course

It's almost comical, like something out of a movie, the way a golf course in a posh Vancouver neighbourhood has become a flashpoint in First Nations' treaty efforts.
The province is in secretive talks about turning the University Golf Club over to the Musqueam band, which has outstanding claims over a lot of expensive Lower Mainland real estate.
The neighbours and golfers, in an area where $1 million gets you a starter home, are shocked and outraged.
One observed that some golfers had so loved the course that they had their ashes scattered over the fairways.
If the Musqueam developed the land, it would be like desecrating a burial site, he said, adding that First Nations don't like it when someone digs up the bones of their ancestors to clear the way for some condos or a new road.
Can't you see that in a movie, the actor — I’m thinking Gene Hackman, for some reason — making his case for the sacred spiritual nature of the course, as a group dressed in black golf clothes scatters someone's ashes beside the eighth tee?
The golf course - open to the public, with rates of $70 for a weekend round - has been a point of contention for years.
The Musqueam and other urban First Nations involved in treaty talks have a problem. The settlement model is based on compensation in land and cash.
But the federal and provincial governments have little land available to hand over in urban areas. First Nations get edgy when any of it is transferred out of their hands.
The Campbell government did exactly that with the University Golf Club in 2003. Despite the Musqueam's objections, and knowing the band was eying it as part of any future settlement, the province sold the course to the University of B.C. for $11 million.
It looked bad. And in 2005 the B.C. Court of Appeal said it was bad. The government had an obligation to consult before selling the land, the court ruled. It gave the province and Musqueam two years to negotiate a settlement. It's not hard to understand why people who golf on the beautiful course or use it for quiet walks would be disappointed it ends up as a housing development. (The Musqueam have said if they get ownership, the land will remain a golf course until 2033.)
But their arguments are so strange as to be alarming. The course does offer a lovely green space. But the area already has an extraordinary amount of parkland, thanks to the lovely UBC campus. (And some of those complaining live in houses on land carved from that space for development.)
The golf-course defenders - ignoring the fact that the Musqueam have a legal say in all this - also say the provincial government should just offer the band cash in return for giving up their claim to the golf course. One opponent fighting any transfer is Martin Zlotnik, a Gordon Campbell backer and big-time Liberal fundraiser. He says the Liberals could just "write a cheque" to cover the cost. "The government prints money, don't forget that," he said in a radio interview.
But, as Campbell likely reminded, him the government doesn't print money; it collects from people and companies.
And the land is worth something over $300 million if it’s developed. The idea that someone in Trail or Prince George should pay higher taxes to preserve a golf course for a largely affluent group in a ritzy Vancouver neighbourhood is just bizarre.
The other interesting question this affair raises is the depth of urban residents' commitment to treaties. Polls generally found them supportive when the land likely to be transferred was far away. This group isn't so keen now the issue is closer to home. (Rural residents have so far accepted the need to transfer land as part of treaty settlements.)
Still, it would make an awfully good movie.
Footnote: The golf course is in Campbell's own riding and he's been criticized by constituents, especially for secrecy around the land negotiations (though that's normal in these kinds of talks). The whole affair shows how much Campbell's approach to First Nations has changed in four years. In 2003, he ignored the Musqueam's claims and pretty much gave the land away; now, he's looking to ensure the band gets the property.

Battle brewing over oil-tanker traffic

An odd public debate has broken out over the issue of oil and gas tankers sailing through B.C.'s coastal waters.
The topic isn't that strange. You can expect conflict over any activity, from tanker traffic to offshore oil and gas development, which involves potential risk to the coast.
What's weird is that this debate isn't about the principle. It's about whether tanker traffic is currently banned by the federal government.
It's not, says Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn, MP for a riding that includes a Victoria suburb and some of the Gulf Islands.
"There actually is no moratorium for traffic coming into the West Coast," he says. The Conservative government will only acknowledge an "a voluntary exclusion zone" that applies to U.S. tankers carrying Alaska oil to Washington State. The American companies have been willing to stay out of B.C. waters, but there's nothing to say they couldn't start sailing through tomorrow, according to Lunn.
David Anderson disagrees. He made his political mark by championing the tanker issue and oversaw the moratorium as environment minister for the federal Liberals. He says the tanker ban has been in place since 1972.
NDP MPs and MLAs have taken the same position; so have most environmental groups.
Most of the evidence appears to be on their side, although there is no cabinet order or legislation setting out the ban.
When the federal Natural Resources Department commissioned a study on offshore oil and gas in 2003, the terms of reference acknowledged the ban.
"In 1972, the Government of Canada imposed a moratorium on crude oil tanker traffic through Dixon Entrance, Hecate Strait, and Queen Charlotte Sound due to concerns over the potential environmental impacts. The moratorium subsequently extended to include oil and gas activities."
It seems clear. And people who say the ban exists note that many federal government documents acknowledge the ban and none - prior to the Conservatives being elected - claim it doesn't exist.
The silliest argument that the ban doesn't exist is an industry-lobby group's claim that because barges and small tankers have continued to carry fuel from Vancouver to coastal communities, there can't be a ban. The moratorium or voluntary exclusion or whatever wasn't meant to stop Bella Bella from getting gas to run generators.
The whole debate largely misses the main point. Whether there is or isn't a moratorium now, should there be?
Lunn's position is significant in that context. If a moratorium exists, then the Conservatives would have to justify lifting the ban. If there is no ban, then opponents of tanker traffic would have to justify imposing one.
The B.C. government comes down somewhere in the middle. It acknowledges the ban, but says it only applies to tankers passing through B.C. waters without.
That's a critical distinction. There hasn't been any other kind of tanker traffic in the past. B.C. hasn't imported or exported oil or gas products through its ports.
But the Alberta oil sands could change that. There are five pipeline proposals to link Alberta with Prince Rupert or Kitimat. Some would transport crude; some would send condensate, used to produce the heavy oil, to Alberta.
And they would all require a steady stream of tankers heading in and out of port several times a week.
That's obviously a risk; look at the Queen of the North. But life is a series of calculations about risk and reward. How many jobs would the pipeline projects provide? How much revenue could the government collect? What can be done to ensure tanker safety?
Those are the question that need to be answered before tankers are given permission to operate in B.C.'s coastal waters, no matter whether there is now a ban or not.
And politicians need to listen to the public before any decision is made.
Footnote: The tanker traffic has already started. Fourteen tankers have been allowed through in the last 18 months delivering condensate to Kitimat. From there it's shipped to Alberta's tar sands. The tanker issue has been politically significant in the past. It could hurt the Conservatives in close B.C. races in the next election.

Polls show election Liberals to lose

We've crossed the divide, more than halfway to the next provincial election on May 12, 2009.
It doesn't seem that long since the last vote in 2005. The Liberals lost their stranglehold on the legislature, but still won a solid majority. Premier Gordon Campbell seemed to take the lesson to heart. The Liberals have been more moderate since, and that's translated into better poll standings. Good enough, in fact, that there's been some sniping at NDP leader Carole James. Partly, that's because some New Democrats live for internal battles. Partly it's based on the dubious argument that James hasn't been tough enough on the government.
But mostly, it's because of the polls, which have shown the NDP well behind the Liberals and making no progress through the last two years. There's a little bit of good news for New Democrats in the latest Ipsos Reid poll. The NDP was up four points from an April poll, to 36 per cent of decided voters.
But the Liberals, while down by the same amount, had the support of 45 per cent of decided voters. That's basically the same support they had in the 2005 election, good enough for 46 of 79 seats. And why not? The economy, through most of the province, is strong. The benefits haven't flowed equally to all British Columbians, but still this is a good time for a lot of people.
And the Liberal government has mostly avoided doing things that people don't like, something that couldn't be said of their first term. There's not much an opposition can do to win support from a competent, error-free government in good times.
But that doesn't mean the 2009 election is already decided. I referred to "error-free" government. That's tough to manage. The Ipsos poll that found the gap narrowing between Liberals and NDP also asked about peoples' responses to the 30-per-cent pay raise and generous pension plan that MLAs awarded themselves. Half those surveyed said their opinion of Gordon Campbell and the Liberals had worsened because of the rich deal; only 26 per cent thought worse of the NDP. James' decision to vote against the raise, donate the money to charities and take the pension seemed to work. Count the whole deal an error.
The pay raise was particularly outrageous. But it's easy for governments to make mistakes, and after a time even the little ones can start to pile up. Like bungling the supervision of lotteries or protection of workers in farm fields or forests. A lot can go wrong for any party in power.
But that doesn't necessarily mean the opposition can start deciding how to pass out the cabinet offices. It's not enough for the governing party to mess up. Voters have to be convinced that opposition could do better. (Unless, of course, the party in power messes up so totally - like the Clark NDP government - that voters would choose anyone other than the old gang.) A lot can go wrong for the Liberals. The Basi-Virk corruption trial, with allegations of political dirty tricks, is hanging over their heads. The health authorities have proved a bad idea and public concern about care problems is mounting. (Though the conversation on health might allow a fresh start.) The children and families ministry appears to be drifting again, raising the risk of new scandals. And government gets blamed for everything from the street problems plaguing cities to forest industry problems. And then there's the areas where the government has raised expectations without delivering - climate change, health reform, progress for First Nations. People are waiting for action that matches the promises. The Liberals have been adroit since 2005. But there are a lot of things that can go wrong.
And that's the NDP's challenge. It won't be enough to crab about the Liberals, the usual opposition role. They have to convince voters that they're capable of doing a better job - competent, with a plan. Which mostly falls to James. The New Democrats have some strong MLAs to carry the load - Mike Farnworth is the law-and-order guy, Adrian Dix in health, Bob Simpson in forestry.
But ultimately, the next election is the Liberals to lose. Unless they mess up and James convinces the public her party can do better, Campbell will be front and centre at the 2010 Olympics.

Signs point to end to Afghan mission

Until last week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has talked as if a Conservative government would automatically extend the military mission in Afghanistan when the current commitment ends in February 2009. Canadians don't cut and run, maintained Harper, and we'll be there until the job - whatever that might be - is done.
But last week, Harper changed his position. The troops will only stay if Canadians support military action against Afghan insurgents, he said. "I don't want to send people into a mission if the opposition at home is going to undercut the dangerous work that they're doing in the field," he said. So unless Canadians say that they support a continuation of the current mission, our front-line combat role will end in about 20 months. (Harper might have meant opposition political parties, but their positions are shaped by the public's views.)
Most opinion polls suggest that Harper should tell NATO now that Canada won't be fighting after 2009. We might be willing to offer humanitarian aid, but Canadians don't want to see our troops to continue to take a combat role. A national Decima Research poll conducted at the beginning of June found two out of three Canadians want the troops out of the fighting when this commitment ends. The main reason appears to be that the public has decided lives are being lost for no reason; 75 per cent of those surveyed did not believe our effort will produce real change in Afghanistan. Canadians aren't a huge part of the NATO commitment - 2,500 out of some 31,000 troops. But we've taken on a tough combat role, one shunned by many of the other participating nations.
So what do we tell Harper about extending the mission? There's no doubt that Canada's efforts have made a positive difference in the lives of some Afghanis. Women point to freedoms that would never have been imaginable under the Taliban. And the mission's goals - supporting the government, preventing terrorists from using Afghanistan as a safe haven, helping improve the lives of citizens - are all laudable.
But that's not enough to justify sacrificing more lives. There has to be not just a noble cause, but also a realistic chance of success. Increasingly, that appears unlikely.
The NATO forces have stepped in to the middle of a civil war. The Taliban are the bad guys - violent, repressive, tyrannical and supporters of terrorism outside Afghanistan's borders.
But the government has a shaky claim to legitimacy. The police and army are at best inefficient and poorly equipped. At worst they are corrupt and criminal. The gap between our ideal of bringing democracy to Afghanistan and the reality of life on the ground are enormous.
And the country remains so desperately poor - comparable to the most struggling countries in Africa - that it is difficult to see how, even with significant aid, it can provide the basic services and institutions needed. At the same time, it appears there is no end to the military struggle in sight. The Taliban is waging a classic insurgency campaign. It attacks when conditions are in its favour and fades away when the NATO forces are strong, only to return once attention shifts elsewhere. The three most recent Canadian deaths came in an area our forces thought they had won control. There is no quick victory over that kind of enemy.
And any hope of success relies on winning the support of the civilian population and demonstrating that the government and the foreign forces can ensure their security.
That's increasingly difficult. Afghan President Hamid Karzai this week complained that NATO forces' reliance on air strikes and artillery to fight the guerrillas is resulting in too many civilian deaths. The best estimate is that NATO forces have killed 203 civilians so far this year; the Taliban 178. It doesn't matter whether the Taliban are using innocents as shields; they are still dead.
Harper says the future of the military mission is up to Canadians. Given the terrible costs and the slim chance of success, the choice is clear. NATO should be told now that while Canada might help with aid, training and other support, our military role won't continue. Footnote: Why did Harper change his position? The war has become a larger political issue, particularly in Quebec; the death toll is rising; and there is no good news to offset the concerns. The Conservatives risk facing an election in which their support for the war is a significant issue.