tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400574.post3115528685088030001..comments2024-03-14T23:06:04.731-07:00Comments on Paying attention: Budget, third thoughtsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400574.post-32234390008443452272009-02-19T21:15:00.000-08:002009-02-19T21:15:00.000-08:00Although, leaving the models aside, you're right t...Although, leaving the models aside, you're right that forecasts of *government spending* should be able to be a little more accurate than our forecasts of economic growth.<BR/><BR/>I missed your meaning a bit in my first read through.Declanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07930743440194279349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400574.post-21297944802255918252009-02-19T21:14:00.000-08:002009-02-19T21:14:00.000-08:00I'd give credit to Oppal for not buying in to the ...I'd give credit to Oppal for not buying in to the mass-game of let's pretend where we all ignore the fact that the economic models that are used to predict economic growth don't work, never have, and this has been shown over and over again in study after study.<BR/><BR/>(they do no better than naive strategies such as 'next year's growth will be the same as this year's growth' or 'next year's growth will be halfway between this year's growth and the long run average')<BR/><BR/>See <A HREF="http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/11/30/debtwatch-no-29-december-2008/" REL="nofollow">here</A> for more details on how these models 'work'Declanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07930743440194279349noreply@blogger.com